Did Peter Turchin 'predict' the Capitol riots of 1/6 back in 2012?

It's one thing to predict a financial crisis or a war or whatever year after year til one finally happens and you claim to be a prophet.

It's quite another thing to consistently name a specific year for an explosion of unrest, long in advance, and nail that prediction.

— Noah Smith 🐇 (@Noahpinion) April 7, 2021