The Marshmallow Test does not reliably predict adult functioning

Jessica F. Sperber, Deborah Lowe Vandell, Greg J. Duncan, Tyler W. Watts, Delay of gratification and adult outcomes: The Marshmallow Test does not reliably predict adult functioning. Child Development, 00, 1-15. 29 July 2024 https://doi.org/10.1111/cdev.14129

Abstract: This study extends the analytic approach conducted by Watts et al. (2018) to examine the long-term predictive validity of delay of gratification. Participants (n = 702; 83% White, 46% male) completed the Marshmallow Test at 54 months (1995–1996) and survey measures at age 26 (2017–2018). Using a preregistered analysis, Marshmallow Test performance was not strongly predictive of adult achievement, health, or behavior. Although modest bivariate associations were detected with educational attainment (r = .17) and body mass index (r = −.17), almost all regression-adjusted coefficients were nonsignificant. No clear pattern of moderation was detected between delay of gratification and either socioeconomic status or sex. Results indicate that Marshmallow Test performance does not reliably predict adult outcomes. The predictive and construct validity of the ability to delay of gratification are discussed.