Flying blind with the economy

Jason Furman, The Trump Choice That’s Uniting Many Economists Against It, NYTimes, Aug. 13, 2025.

How many commissioners of the Bureau of Labor Statistics can you name? For a vast majority of people (and even most economists) the answer would be zero. And for good reason. While several highly accomplished and effective people have served in that role over the years, it is fundamentally about making sure the plumbing of our data infrastructure is working. Most of us just accept that the data is the best possible estimate of the economy — just as we do not think much about where our water comes from, we simply drink it — and instead argue about much harder and less objective questions, like whether inflation is transitory or job growth is trending toward recession.

Unfortunately, that could change if the Senate confirms President Trump’s pick, E.J. Antoni, to be the next B.L.S. commissioner.

When Mr. Trump abruptly fired the B.L.S. commissioner after negative jobs number revisions this month, he wrote on social media that he would find someone “much more competent and qualified” for the post. He is proposing replacing Erika McEntarfer, a highly respected economist with decades of experience working at the U.S. Census Bureau and elsewhere, with a partisan favored for the job by Steve Bannon.

Dr. Antoni’s posts that have shown apparent misunderstandings of import prices and the baby boom retirement have gotten the most attention and criticism, along with his statement before the nomination that the monthly jobs report should be suspended.

Economists, unite!

Dr. Antoni’s selection has done something I have rarely seen, which is to unite a number of economists and policy wonks from across the political spectrum. The American Enterprise Institute’s Stan Veuger told The Washington Post that “he is utterly unqualified and as partisan as it gets.” Similar sentiments were echoed by people affiliated with conservative and libertarian think tanks, in a Wall Street Journal editorial and a National Review article.

The reason people are so worried is that the B.L.S. produces the two most important economic reports every month: the employment report and the Consumer Price Index inflation report, both of which are central to decision making by the Federal Reserve, financial markets and businesses more broadly. [...]

But there are darker scenarios. A B.L.S. commissioner could suspend publication of data like China did when it was trying to cover up high youth unemployment rates. Or an effort to overhaul the methodology could end up breaking the statistics instead.

You wouldn't want to ride in an Uber with a driver who kept their eyes closed. We have a president who wants to do the equivalent with the economic. How can you steer the ship of state if you can't see the ocean? Things don't improve if you're given access to images of an imaged ocean.

H/t Tyler Cowen.