From YouTube:
Every once in a while, a shot comes along that pushes the art form forward. It advances cinematic language, or action filmmaking, or visual effects. Bullet Time did all three. I'm gonna try to recreate it with nothing but a personal computer and a coupla phones.
First up, Oprah loves Scott, and Kara comments on her role in the Nuzzi-Lizza-RFK Jr drama. Then, they react to reports that Anthropic is eyeing an IPO, and Sam Altman declaring a “code red” at OpenAI. Plus, what it means that Netflix has sweetened its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, and Scott’s coming around on Bitcoin. Stay tuned for predictions to hear which members of the Trump administration Scott thinks will get the boot soon.
00:00 Intro
9:06 Nuzzi & Lizza & RFK Jr
16:40 Anthropic IPO?
23:17 Warner Bros. Bids
34:58 Michael Dell’s Trump Accounts Donation
38:48 Bitcoin Takes a Dive
43:09 Costco Sues U.S. Government
48:17 Predictions
On the predictions, Trump is going get rid of three of these four are out: Hegseth, Patel, RFK and possibly Noem.
David French, Pete Hegseth Is Doing Something Even Worse Than Breaking the Law, NYTimes, Dec. 4,2025.
This is a long column, worth reading in full, but I'm only going to print a few excerpts. The opening paragraph:
In their military campaign in South America, Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth aren’t just defying the Constitution and breaking the law. They are attacking the very character and identity of the American military.
Then comes a discussion of the rationale for the laws of war and of the current case, the strikes of September 2. Then, after the half-way point:
The laws of war aren’t woke. They’re not virtue signaling. And they’re not a sign that the West has forgotten how to fight. Instead, they provide the American military with a number of concrete benefits.
First, complying with the laws of war can provide a battlefield advantage. This year I read Antony Beevor’s classic history of the end of Nazi Germany, “The Fall of Berlin 1945.” I was struck by a fascinating reality: Hitler’s troops fought fanatically against the Soviets not simply to preserve Hitler’s rule (most knew the cause was lost) but also to slow the Red Army down, to buy more time for civilians and soldiers to escape to American, British and French lines.
In short, because of our humanity and decency, Germans surrendered when they would have fought. The contrast with the brutality of the Soviets saved American lives.
I saw this reality in Iraq. By the end of my deployment in 2008, insurgents started surrendering to us, often without a fight. In one memorable incident, a terrorist walked up to the front gate of our base and turned himself in. [...]
Second, the laws of war make war less savage and true peace possible. One of the reasons the war in the Pacific was so unrelentingly grim was that the Japanese military never made the slightest pretense of complying with the laws of war. They would shoot shipwrecked survivors. They would torture prisoners. They would fight to the death even when there was no longer any military point to resistance.
We were hardly perfect, but part of our own fury was directly related to relentless Japanese violations of the laws of war. We became convinced that the Japanese would not surrender until they faced the possibility of total destruction. And when both sides abandon any commitment to decency and humanity, then the object of war changes — from victory to annihilation.
Even if only one side upholds the law of war, it not only makes war less brutal; it preserves the possibility of peace and reconciliation. That’s exactly what happened at the end of World War II. For all of our faults, we never became like the Soviets and thus have a very different relationship with our former foes.
Finally, the laws of war help preserve a soldier’s soul. We are a nation built around the notion of human dignity. Our Declaration of Independence highlights the worth of every person. Our Bill of Rights stands as one of the world’s great statements of human dignity. It is contrary to the notion of virtuous American citizenship to dehumanize people, to brutalize and oppress them.
There's more at the link, much more.
Phil Klay, Trump’s Boat Strikes Corrode America’s Soul, NYTimes, Dec. 5, 2025.
There are many reasons to object to the policies that the Trump administration’s videos and memes showcase. Yet the images themselves also inflict wounds[...] The president inhabits a position of moral leadership. When the president and his officials sell their policies, they’re selling a version of what it means to be an American — what should evoke our love and our hate, our disgust and our delight. If all governments rest on opinion, as James Madison thought, then it is this moral shaping of the electorate that gives the president his freedom of action, and that we will still have to reckon with once he is gone.
Later:
There are many reasons to object to the policies that the Trump administration’s videos and memes showcase. Yet the images themselves also inflict wounds, of the kind that Alypius suffered when he raised his eyelids. The president inhabits a position of moral leadership. When the president and his officials sell their policies, they’re selling a version of what it means to be an American — what should evoke our love and our hate, our disgust and our delight. If all governments rest on opinion, as James Madison thought, then it is this moral shaping of the electorate that gives the president his freedom of action, and that we will still have to reckon with once he is gone.
The president’s supporters seem to grasp this. Fox News’s Jesse Watters responded with utter incredulity that the United States would offer quarter to an enemy. “We’re blowing up terrorists in the Caribbean,” he said on Monday, “but we’re supposed to rescue them from drowning if they survive?” Others went further. “I really do kind of not only want to see them killed in the water, whether they’re on the boat or in the water,” Megyn Kelly, the conservative podcaster, said, “but I’d really like to see them suffer. I would like Trump and Hegseth to make it last a long time so they lose a limb and bleed out.”
An Associated Press investigation suggests that the men Ms. Kelly would like to watch slowly die are often poor laborers: a fisherman, a motorcycle taxi driver, a bus driver, living in cinder-block homes with spotty water and power service, making at least $500 per trip ferrying cocaine, a crime Americans normally judge worthy of a prison sentence rather than a torturous death.
The Trump administration’s celebration of death brings us far from discussions of the law of armed conflict, the constitutionality of the strikes or even the Christian morality that would eventually push Augustine to formulate an early version of just-war theory. We’re in the Colosseum, one brought to us digitally so that we need not leave our homes to hear the cheers of the crowd, to watch the killing done for our entertainment and suffer the same harm that injured Alypius more than 1,600 years ago.
YouTube:
Adam welcomes pop-up book designer Kelli Anderson to the workshop to learn about her latest book: Alphabet in Motion. Six years in the making, this book is an interactive exploration of the history of typography, and the engineering of its pop-up mechanisms is as elegant and beautiful as the letterforms they illustrate!
A M A Z I N G !!
The technology is coming, but we can't foresee the social and political consequences. Hossenfelder, however, is skeptical about the survival of current democratic systems, which she discusses about 7 minutes into the video. She doesn't think the European welfare system will survive.
Here's the content of a tweet by Séb Krier (you should check out comments to the original):
Yes, I've been saying this for a while now. See for example https://x.com/sebkrier/status/1968753358216302894 and Danzig's work here: https://cset.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/Machines-Bureaucracies-and-Markets-as-Artificial-Intelligences.pdf
I don't think the predominant narrative of AI as a singular entity, a Sand God, a discrete moment in time, or a 'separate species' (as Tegmark puts it) is correct or helpful. As Danzig argues, AI is indeed "alien," but only in the same way a stock market or the DMV is alien: they are all reductionist, correlative intelligences.
They strip the world of context, reducing reality to standardized inputs like prices or tokens to process information at scales humans cannot. To me at least, this shared "alien" nature normalizes AI as the latest evolution in a lineage of artificial processors we’ve lived with for centuries.
So instead of a unitary being or species, AGI should be understood as a collection of complex systems, models, and products that functions similarly to (and integrates with) existing human macro-systems. An amplifier for the bureaucracies and markets that already govern us, not a discrete 'biological-style' agent. Its governance is a continuous sociopolitical struggle (insert always has been meme) that is shaped by many different forces, not a one-time mathematical proof of safety before a launch.
Relatedly, I feel like the current discourse also has a blind spot for the 'demand' side. We obsess over the supply (R&D, model scaling, 'the AGI') as if these systems are created in a vacuum. I think this is how people end up with scenarios where AGIs are just doing things for their own sake, completely detached from human preferences (who are usually described as 'disempowered').
But they aren't; they are pulled and shaped by downstream demand, cost constraints, and efficiency needs. This economic reality has implications for how the technology develops. See also Drexler's CAIS model (https://owainevans.github.io/pdfs/Reframing_Superintelligence_FHI-TR-2019.pdf) - Drexler anticipated much of this and the core intuitions remain true, even if slightly out of date. You won’t see one omniscient agent, but a proliferation of specialized systems, models of varying sizes, and distinct products rising in parallel because that is what is economically viable.
This is why the AGI governance conversation often feels so confused. If you view AGI as a singular biological entity, you make two mistakes: safetyists project human-like 'intent' where they should be looking at incentives, and policymakers reach for a singular 'FDA' when instead they need to look into different different markets, sectors, products etc.
You can’t have a single regulator or discrete safety rules for 'The Economy' or 'The Bureaucracy,' and you won't be able to have one for 'Intelligence' either. Models still matter of course - none of this means you shouldn't test, evaluate, and understand them better - but I think we overindex on this frame a bit. And as Dean says, none of this is to downplay concerns and risks: but I do think it has implications for how to understand and address them.
"Software 1.0 easily automates what you can specify.
Software 2.0 easily automates what you can verify."
Sharing an interesting recent conversation on AI's impact on the economy.
— Andrej Karpathy (@karpathy) November 16, 2025
AI has been compared to various historical precedents: electricity, industrial revolution, etc., I think the strongest analogy is that of AI as a new computing paradigm (Software 2.0) because both are…
At the very least, that’s the right way to think about the problem. Assuming stationarity is problematic for most real-world tasks.
— Masudur Rahman (@masud99r) November 17, 2025
An interesting conversation that refuses to indulge in speculation about the Epstein papers, while noting that Trump seems terrified off them and so is increasingly distracted, and moves from populism through peformativity and on the Marjorie Taylor Green as an odd sort of bell weather.
YouTube:
Robert Wright and Nikita Petrov discuss Trump 2.0, Peter Thiel’s Antichrist theory, Covid, the rise of “inner emigration” as survival strategy, normalized warfare in Russia, the reality-distorting effects of deepfakes, and more—all in light of invoking W. B. Yeats to ask: Are things falling apart?
0:00 Teaser
0:59 What is Bob doing in Qatar?
4:04 "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold." Why Yeats felt this way
7:37 Peter Thiel's Antichrist theory
9:46 Nikita: COVID was a weird time, and nothing has been the same since
14:57 Why Bob feels things are falling apart
18:28 Were things ever in order?
19:53 "Inner emigration": tuning out the world as self-care
22:38 A reaction to a drone strike: "Loud noises don't wake me up"
25:57 Young people are turning away from social media
27:05 When Spain lost all power and cellular coverage
30:36 War as a "major inconvenience"
34:22 Bob's prediction about Ukraine's future retaliation for Pokrovsk
38:56 Nikita's impressions from Europe
42:07 Nonzero Reading Club THIS SATURDAY: Norbert Wiener's God & Golem, Inc.
47:08 Deepfakes and the future of news
52:04 Russia's first humanoid robot falls down
Note that Wright was born in 1957. At roughly 16:23 he notes that:
I grew I kind of came of age entered adolescence amid the the turmoil of the late 60s and was in fact in San Francisco uh the epicenter of it in the US kind of when I was 12 13 years old. Um and so I don't know I you would think that would kind of have anured me to it. Um, for whatever reason, this seems a lot worse than that did to me, at least at the time. I mean, where the US is, the degree of polarization, nature of the polarization, and so on. Um, but it isn't just that and different people talk about different things when you ask them if things are falling apart. I mean, there is the whole international thing with uh Trump really almost making a point of establishing that the rules just don't apply.
I'm a decade older that Wright and so arguably have lived through more of the political and cultural turmoil of the 1960s and 1970s (though I was not in San Francisco). By the time he was in his teens the war in Vietnam was over, as was the anti-war movement and the civil rights movement, but I experienced those, not to mention a steelworkers' strike the shut down the steel industry for four months. I agree with his observation that the current period seems more chaotic than things appeared back then. Is this an illusion of some sort, or are things currently more disordered? I'm not quite sure.
Wright's written a Substack post on this theme: Are Things Falling Apart?
Gavriil tries Tchaikovsky's "At the Church" - "В церкви" Чайковского - Гаврилушка пробует разучивать
YouTube:
The brand new oil rig, West Bollsta, worth $500 million, travels from manufacture in South Korea to Europe. Although self powered, the rig still needs a specialised high powered ocean tug, the ALP Striker, to assist with the long trip.Mega Transports look at the vehicles that transport exceptionally large and demanding cargoes across the planet; these journeys require precise planning, which can only take place with special safety precautions and for which large teams plan months in advance.
New Harvard study shows AI companion apps use emotional farewells to stop user exit.
— Rohan Paul (@rohanpaul_ai) November 3, 2025
These messages produced up to 14x more engagement after goodbye.
An audit of 6 top apps captured 1,200 goodbyes and coded the immediate replies.
6 tactics emerged, premature exit guilt, fear… pic.twitter.com/omEdFIh11T
