Maniplulation, crypto boost, ticket clipping as in we are the market you suckers trade, and get paid either way so the mire you bet the richer- oops self made money! - and able to be gamed. What could go wrong Bill? And Rubio etc & Trumpian decision makers swayed by and on by "predicriins" betting pool! Dangerous.
"Mantic Monday: The Monkey's Paw Curls ... Jan 13, 2026 ... "For a few weeks in October, Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan was the world’s youngest self-made billionaire (now it’s some AI people). Kalshi is so accurate that it’s getting called a national security threat. ... "Polymarket resolves markets by . . . oh man, how long do you have? There’s a cryptocurrency called UMA. UMA owners can stake it to vote on Polymarket resolutions in an associated contract called the UMA Oracle. Voters on the losing side get their cryptocurrency confiscated and given to the winners. This creates a Keynesian beauty contest, ie a situation where everyone tries to vote for the winning side. The most natural Schelling point is the side which is actually correct. If someone tries to attack the oracle by buying lots of UMA and voting for the wrong side, this incentivizes bystanders to come in and defend the oracle by voting for the right side, since (conditional on there being common knowledge that everyone will do this) that means they get free money at the attackers’ expense. But also, the UMA currency goes up in value if people trust the oracle and plan to use it more often, and it goes down if people think the oracle is useless and may soon get replaced by other systems. So regardless of their other incentives, everyone who owns the currency has an incentive to vote for the true answer so that people keep trusting the oracle. This system works most of the time, but tends towards so-called “oracle drama” where seemingly prosaic resolutions might lie at the end of a thrilling story of attacks, counterattacks, and escalations. Here are some of the most interesting alleged rulescuckings of 2026: ... https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-the-monkeys-paw-curls Shayne Coplan (born 1998) is an American entrepreneur, technologist, and the founder and chief executive officer (CEO) of Polymarket, a prediction market.[1][2] In October 2025, he became the world's youngest self-made billionaire according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, with a net worth of $1.0 billion according to Forbes.[3] ...
In 2014, Coplan participated in the initial coin offering of Ethereum and acquired the cryptocurrency when it was priced significantly lower than its later value.[1][4] Inspired by economistFriedrich Hayek’s theories on decentralized information systems and George Mason Universityprofessor Robin Hanson’s work on Futarchy, Coplan founded Polymarketin 2020, which operates as a prediction market using smart contracts on the Polygon blockchain for settling wagers.[1][4] Coplan’s Polymarket is now the largest prediction market in the world, facilitating over $3.2 billion in bets during the 2024 United States presidential election and featuring prominently in mainstream media coverage of the election.[citation needed]He was raided by the FBI in November 2024.[2]" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shayne_Coplan SD
Maniplulation, crypto boost, ticket clipping as in we are the market you suckers trade, and get paid either way so the mire you bet the richer- oops self made money! - and able to be gamed. What could go wrong Bill? And Rubio etc & Trumpian decision makers swayed by and on by "predicriins" betting pool! Dangerous.
ReplyDelete"Mantic Monday: The Monkey's Paw Curls
...
Jan 13, 2026
...
"For a few weeks in October, Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan was the world’s youngest self-made billionaire (now it’s some AI people). Kalshi is so accurate that it’s getting called a national security threat.
...
"Polymarket resolves markets by . . . oh man, how long do you have? There’s a cryptocurrency called UMA. UMA owners can stake it to vote on Polymarket resolutions in an associated contract called the UMA Oracle. Voters on the losing side get their cryptocurrency confiscated and given to the winners. This creates a Keynesian beauty contest, ie a situation where everyone tries to vote for the winning side. The most natural Schelling point is the side which is actually correct. If someone tries to attack the oracle by buying lots of UMA and voting for the wrong side, this incentivizes bystanders to come in and defend the oracle by voting for the right side, since (conditional on there being common knowledge that everyone will do this) that means they get free money at the attackers’ expense. But also, the UMA currency goes up in value if people trust the oracle and plan to use it more often, and it goes down if people think the oracle is useless and may soon get replaced by other systems. So regardless of their other incentives, everyone who owns the currency has an incentive to vote for the true answer so that people keep trusting the oracle. This system works most of the time, but tends towards so-called “oracle drama” where seemingly prosaic resolutions might lie at the end of a thrilling story of attacks, counterattacks, and escalations.
Here are some of the most interesting alleged rulescuckings of 2026:
...
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/mantic-monday-the-monkeys-paw-curls
Shayne Coplan (born 1998) is an American entrepreneur, technologist, and the founder and chief executive officer (CEO) of Polymarket, a prediction market.[1][2] In October 2025, he became the world's youngest self-made billionaire according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, with a net worth of $1.0 billion according to Forbes.[3]
...
In 2014, Coplan participated in the initial coin offering of Ethereum and acquired the cryptocurrency when it was priced significantly lower than its later value.[1][4] Inspired by economistFriedrich Hayek’s theories on decentralized information systems and George Mason Universityprofessor Robin Hanson’s work on Futarchy, Coplan founded Polymarketin 2020, which operates as a prediction market using smart contracts on the Polygon blockchain for settling wagers.[1][4] Coplan’s Polymarket is now the largest prediction market in the world, facilitating over $3.2 billion in bets during the 2024 United States presidential election and featuring prominently in mainstream media coverage of the election.[citation needed]He was raided by the FBI in November 2024.[2]"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shayne_Coplan
SD