The persistence of political forms in New York 2140, a coordination problem

As you may know, I've been participating in a group reading of Kim Stanley Robinson's New York 2140, re-reading for me. We're in the wrap-up phase. Bryan Alexander observed:

Politics This has a specific, clear, and well developed programmatic political agenda. In response to unmitigated climate change and escalating income inequality, New York 2140 calls for a massive, global left wing/green revolt. Through it national tax policies would change, major banks nationalized, and the American Democratic party be shifted (dragged) to the left. While its villains get some small voice, it’s clear where the novel stands. As Babette Kraft observes in a comment on last week’s post, “In terms of politics, a democracy of the people is the good fight. It’s the financial system that’s the enemy.”

I responded:

3. On the politics, you’re right, a clear revolt to the left. But the overall framework seems to be pretty much the one we’re operating in now. That framework managed to remain viable through two Pulses and on into 2140. Do I believe (in) that?

Didn’t the framework of world politics shift dramatically during and after WWI (the death of old Europe, the Russian revolution) and then again after WWII (dissolution of colonial empires, creation of the UN, rise of Japan)? Does the collapse of the Soviet Union in 89/90 mark another such shift (w/ rise of China and India)? That’s two or three shifts in a century, but then no major shifts over the next century and a quarter?

Of course, if there were a couple more shifts, what would they be?

Bryan:

3. The persistence of our political forms seemed strange, and I’ve mentioned it before. Even assuming some American imperial/hyperpower permanence, we do add new offices. Think about the LBJ/Nixon boom in federal departments, or the post-9-11 Homeland Security reorg. Agreed.

I prefaced my next (and last, at the moment) response by referencing these remarks KSR made in Nature:

Here’s how I think science fiction works aesthetically. It’s not prediction. It has, rather, a double action, like the lenses of 3D glasses. Through one lens, we make a serious attempt to portray a possible future. Through the other, we see our present metaphorically, in a kind of heroic simile that says, “It is as if our world is like this.” When these two visions merge, the artificial third dimension that pops into being is simply history. We see ourselves and our society and our planet “like giants plunged into the years”, as Marcel Proust put it. So really it’s the fourth dimension that leaps into view: deep time, and our place in it. Some readers can’t make that merger happen, so they don’t like science fiction; it shimmers irreally, it gives them a headache. But relax your eyes, and the results can be startling in their clarity.

With that in mind:

I suppose one way to think about that strange persistence of political forms is through KSR’s remarks about science fiction as a 3D lens on the present. It’s the present political system that he’s looking at and so, of course, that’s got to be there at the heart of his construction of 2140. When then, is he revealing about the present system? That it depends on the acquiescence of the many, but if somehow the many can communicate their dissatisfaction to one another and coordinate their actions, it’s all over–is that what he’s saying?

I keep thinking about what economists call a coordination problem. In the small, it’s like when you’re making a decision with a small group. You’re thinking, “if Ted goes for it, then I’m in.” Ted’s thinking, “if Mary goes for it, I’m in.” Mary’s thinking, “if Jake, then me.” Jake’s thinking, “if only Suzy would tumble.” What’s Suzy thinking? You got it, she’s thinking “I’m with Bryan, what’s he want?” But NONE of you know any of this. Someone’s got to go first, then the rest will know what to do. Who’s it going to be?

That’s what’s at the heart of The Emperor’s New Clothes. Everyone knows that the guy doesn’t have any clothes on at all, he’s naked. But they also know that if they show any dissent, they’re in trouble. And then the kid blurts it out, “He’s naked!” Everyone hears the kid, everyone knows that everyone else hears him. And so they tumble.

What finally triggers things in NY2140? Amelia gets an impulse in her balloon and calls for a strike. That’s not what they’d planned. Heck, at that point they didn’t have a plen for starting things off. They just knew they were somehow sometime soon going to start a strike. Amelia jumped the gun. She played the role of the little kid who called the Emperor’s bluff. Of course, it wouldn’t have worked if there wasn’t a large population ready to tumble.

Now, back in the present, is that what Trump sorta’ did in the 2016 election? He yelled out “the Dems are naked” and it turned out there was a substantial population eager and waiting for that message. So he won the election. I note that, as decisions go, voting for a Donald Trump is a lot easier, has far less risk, than refusing to pay the rent, the mortgage, the college loan, or withdrawing your money from the bank.