Showing posts with label TalentSearch. Show all posts
Showing posts with label TalentSearch. Show all posts

Thursday, January 23, 2025

There aren't all that many exceptional people

Gilles E. Gignac, The number of exceptional people: Fewer than 85 per 1 million across key traits, Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 234, 2025, 112955, ISSN 0191-8869, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2024.112955.

Abstract: Cognitive biases can lead to overestimating the expected prevalence of exceptional multi-talented candidates, leading to potential dissatisfaction in recruitment contexts. This study aims to accurately estimate the odds of finding individuals who excel across multiple correlated dimensions. According to the literature, the three key individual differences variables are intelligence, conscientiousness, and emotional stability. Consequently, data were simulated using a multivariate normal distribution (N = 20 million), where the three variables were standardized (mean of 0 and SD of 1). The correlations were specified as: intelligence with conscientiousness (−0.03), intelligence with emotional stability (0.07), and conscientiousness with emotional stability (0.42). Cases were classified into four categories based on z-scores across the three dimensions: notable (≥ 0.0 SD), remarkable (≥ 1.0 SD), exceptional (≥ 2.0 SD), and profoundly exceptional (≥ 3.0 SD). Approximately 16% of cases were classified as notable, 1% as remarkable, and only 0.0085% met the exceptional criterion of 2 SDs above the mean. Just one case was identified as profoundly exceptional. These findings highlight the rarity of individuals excelling across multiple traits, suggesting a need to recalibrate recruitment expectations. Even moderately above-average individuals on these key dimensions may merit greater recognition due to their scarcity.

Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Basketball GOAT: Jordan or James?

I've thinking about GOATs – Greatest Of All Time – in response to Tyler Cowen's book, GOAT: Who is the Greatest Economist of all Time and Why Does it Matter? I was looking over the NYTimes yesterday, as I a wont to do, and came across this article in The Athletic, their sports affiliate: Who is the NBA GOAT: LeBron or Jordan? For current players, longevity is narrowing the gap (by Sam Amick and Josh Robbins, Apr. 23, 2024). So I thought I'd quote some passages just to see how NBA players think about the issue:

While Michael Jordan won the “Greatest of All Time” category for the third consecutive time, his once-massive lead over LeBron James has shrunk significantly with every passing poll. This time around, James almost took the mantle. The data speaks loud and clear...

  • 2019 (the first time The Athletic conducted the poll): Jordan earned 73 percent of the votes, with James second at 11.9 percent (a gap of 61.1 percentage points)
  • 2023: Jordan earned 58.3 percent of the votes, with James second at 33 percent (a gap of 25.3 percent)
  • 2024: Jordan earned 45.9 percent of the votes, with James second at 42.1 percent (a gap of just 3.8 percent)

But why has Jordan’s lead shrunk so much? We wanted to let the players themselves explain.

The consistent rationale among LeBron voters, both old and new, is that his longevity is the ultimate difference-maker between the two. He’ll be 40 years old on Dec. 30, yet is still great enough to be widely considered one of the best players in today’s game. While Jordan was epic in his 14- year career, from his 6-0 record in the NBA Finals to his five Most Valuable Player awards and his incredible two-way play, many players shared the view that James’ ability to remain elite for more than two decades puts him over the top.

Jordan, to review, retired twice (in 1993 and 1998) during his storied career and played 14 seasons in a 19-year span. When he was James’ age, in the last of his two forgettable seasons in Washington, he was putting up good numbers on a bad Wizards team that went 37-45 in both of his postseason-less campaigns. James, meanwhile, has saved some of his best work for last:

  • He broke Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s all-time scoring record on Feb. 7, 2023
  • He became the first player to be named to a 20th All-Star team in February
  • He was one of three players to average at least 25 points, eight assists and seven rebounds this season (the others were Nikola Jokić and Luka Dončić)

Out of respect for the GOAT incumbent, we’ll begin by highlighting this nuanced opinion from a Jordan voter who believes MJ’s influence on the entire sports world — not just basketball — is a deciding X-factor.

“The greatest ever is LeBron James, (but) the greatest of all time is Michael Jordan,” the player said. “The difference is stats. When you talk about impact, Michael Jordan. When you talk about stats and numbers, LeBron. Mike has the most impact, so that makes him the greatest ever in all aspects because he doesn’t just impact basketball. He impacts people who look up to him in tennis and football. But you won’t hear that about LeBron. ... LeBron changed the game, but more so how it’s played. Jordan changed how it’s viewed. And that’s a big difference.”

I find that last remark particularly interesting. One of Cowen's criteria for economic greatness was influencing the world of thinking beyond economics. Preferring Jordan because of his influence on sports in general is the same kind of consideration, no? 

There's more at the link.

Friday, April 12, 2024

Some notes on excellence: Why O.J. Simpson was better at football than his “Dream Team” was at law

Back in the mid-1990s a banker named Bill Berry created a website called Meanderings. It’s now off-line, but you can find it in the WayBackMachine. I worked closely with him, providing content, ideas, and editing. This was the early days, known in retrospect as Web 1.0. There was no social web, no blogs, no Google, not quite no-nothing, but not very much. It was mostly hand-coded HTML. During the O.J. trial we teamed up with VIBE Magazine to provide commentary on the trial. At the time Lester Kenyatta Spence was a graduate student; he’s now on the faculty at Johns Hopkins.

I contributed several pieces. There was a short piece giving my reaction to initial news about the crime. I posted that here yesterday. I wrote a somewhat longer piece about his excellence as an athlete. I argued that he was better as a football player than his “Dream Team” lawyers were at the law. While Simpson was a First Level athlete, his lawyers were mostly Second and Third Level lawyers. Here is that argument:

Meritocracy: How good is the Best?

We need to take the measure of Mr. Simpson’s athletic accomplishment. Of course that accomplishment, no matter how great, does not promote him to an exalted state in which wife-beating is permitted, nor does it have any bearing on his innocence or guilt in the matters on trial. But that accomplishment has a great deal to do with why his trial is fascinating to people around the nation and the world.

It is that accomplishment which put Mr. Simpson in a position to become a celebrity. If he hadn’t been a great athlete, he’d be just another man accused of murder. In fact, if he hadn’t been a great athlete, he might well have died on the streets twenty or thirty years ago, for that’s where his life was headed until he decided to pursue athletic excellence.

In taking Simpson’s measure I want to do so both in an athletic context and in a more general context. In that more general context I want to measure some of the players in this trial against the standard Mr. Simpson met as an athlete. I do this, not because I think it has any bearing on the outcome of the trial, though it may have, but primarily out of an interest in excellence. Just how good are the players in this, “The Trial of the Century”?

Simpson on Record

The easiest way to approach O.J. Simpson’s excellence is to look at the stats. His pro career rushing total of 11,236 yards was second only to Jim Brown’s total when Mr. Simpson retired at the end of 1979, though several backs have since surpassed both, most notably Walter Payton. His 1973 season total of 2003 yards was the first 2000-yard season on record and is second only to Eric Dickerson’s 2105-yard 1984 season – a season with 16 games, 2 more than Mr. Simpson’s 1973 season. As Arthur Ashe notes in A Hard Road to Glory, Simpson was the premier running back of the 1970s and certainly one of the best of all time.

Whether or not he was The Best is another matter. In general, I think attempts to name “the best of...” are pointless. There are few fields where any one person is so dominant that one person is clearly head-and-shoulders above all others. That certainly is not the case with football running backs. There are a number of men who are judged to be among the very best -- Jim Brown, Walter Payton, Gale Sayers, and so on. Mr. Simpson clearly played at that level.

Instead of worrying about the one best, I propose that we think in terms of Levels. The best practitioners operate at the 1st Level. These 1st Level people have comparable ability; each has his or her strengths and weaknesses, but overall, they achieve the same level of results. And they are distinctly better than 2nd Level folks, who are comparable to one another but distinctly better than 3rd Level folks, and so on down the line. Daniel F. Chambliss at Hamilton College used such a notion in a recent study of swimming: The Mundanity of Excellence: An Ethnographic Report on Stratification and Olympic Swimmers. He noted that nationally ranked swimmers aren’t simply faster than lesser swimmers. Their technique is notably different as is their whole approach to the sport. They operate in a different world. That’s what levels are about, different worlds of athletic action.

In the world of professional running backs Simpson, Payton, Sayers and Brown, and so on, are roughly comparable to one another, with no one clearly dominant over the others. That puts O. J. Simpson is in the 1st Level of running backs. At the 2nd Level you have men like Larry Csonka, Frano Harris, and John Riggins. Two of these, Csonka and Riggins actually posted more career yards than Simpson did. However, these three all had a lower average carry than Simpson – 4.3 (Csonka), 4.1 (Harris), 3.9 (Riggins), 4.7 (Simpson). The 1st Level runners have a style and flair that these 2nd Level runners do not. As for the 3rd and 4th Level runners, these are the guys who do their job, and do it well, but they don’t do it well enough and long enough to place high in the record books or to satisfy one’s desire for power and elegance.

Measuring the Legal Eagles

How many of the lawyers involved in Mr. Simpson’s trial are 1st Level lawyers? Of course, a number of those lawyers and many in the press would have us believe that it’s the 1st Level all around, both prosecution and defense. However, for reasons I’ll get to shortly, we need to consider the possibility that none of them are 1st Level lawyers or, at most, only one or two of them. In saying this I don’t want to imply that they aren’t good lawyers. Rather, I want to emphasize the stringency of the standard of judgment I’m asking you to apply.

Compared to the population at large, the typical NFL bench warmer is an excellent athlete. Compared to Mr. Simpson that bench warmer is mediocre to poor. That’s the standard. We are so used to watching pro football that we too easily assume that level of ability is a routine human accomplishment. Very few football players get to play varsity ball for powerhouse college teams and very few of those make it into the pros. A pro bench warmer is a very good athlete indeed.

There are lots of lawyers and judges in this country, 777,000 lawyers and 38,000 judges according to the 1994-1995 American Almanac. I’m not a lawyer and I don’t know more than a handful of them so I’m not in a very good position to judge legal talent. Since I was trained as a scholar and have spent a substantial chunk of my life in the academic world, I propose to use my sense of the that world as an indirect way of getting some sense of how to separate lawyers into Levels. The educational requirements for lawyers and professors are broadly similar – several years of work beyond the Bachelor’s degree – and the total numbers are similar, 772,000 college and university teachers. So let’s assume that the distribution of ability is pretty much the same in both groups.

I’ve spent my academic career at fairly good places, undergraduate work at Johns Hopkins, graduate work at the State University of New York at Buffalo, a faculty appointment at the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. In that time I’ve worked with only two people I’d consider to be 1st Level. That is to say, I’ve worked with only two scholars whose intellectual ability is comparable to Mr. Simpson’s athletic ability. I’d guess that the norm at those institutions is 3rd Level, but there are a reasonable number of 2nd Level people and, alas, 4th Level too. However, since those are all fairly elite institutions, I think we have to add a 5th and 6th Level if we want to cover the entire academic establishment in the United States. Are there any NFL players who aren’t at least 3rd Level athletes? Perhaps, but not many. The NFL is an exclusive club, a bit more exclusive than the faculties of Harvard, Cal Tech, Johns Hopkins, or Berkeley.

It doesn’t take great brilliance or creativity to get a Ph. D. Moderate intelligence and zero creativity are adequate as long as you are willing to work hard. I’ve been told that the law is like that as well. If moderate intelligence, zero creativity, and hard work will get you into the club, then high intelligence, moderate creativity, and hard work will get you into the 3rd or perhaps even the 2nd Level. To get into the 1st Level you need to be brilliant, very creative, and work hard. Not many academics or lawyers meet that standard, the O.J. Simpson standard.

So, how do we rate the legal talent involved in this trial? I’d guess we are dealing with mostly 2nd and 3rd level lawyers. The Los Angeles County D.A.’s office would certainly attract some of the best of the lawyers who want to work as criminal prosecutors and they are probably using their best in this case. It’s not unreasonable to think of these attorneys as being equivalent to the faculty at an Ivy League school. On the defense side, Mr. Simpson’s money allows him to hire high-priced legal talent. That in itself isn’t a measure of ability and mastery, but I doubt that a no-talent hack could make it in that league. It is necessary to have some appreciable degree of mastery, or the good sense to hire it to one’s staff. So I have little trouble granting the prosecution and defense teams 2nd and 3rd Level status.

But, are there any 1st Level lawyers involved in this case? On general grounds I wouldn’t expect more than 2 or 3 simply because there aren’t that many lawyers with that kind of ability and it would be extremely difficult to get a half-dozen of them involved in the same case. How many NFL teams have had a half-dozen 1st Level players on the team at one time? Zero. How many 1st Level players are there in the whole NFL at any one time? Do Pro Bowl teams have a Mr. Simpson at every position? No way! The very suggestion seems absurd.

I’m reluctant to assert whether or not any of the lawyers involved is 1st Level. I note that the legal community in cyberspace and elsewhere has been quite critical of the legal craftsman ship displayed in this trial. However, many commentators in the media and in cyberspace have been giving Barry Scheck high marks for his cross examination of criminalist Dennis Fung. That work seems to be the best of the lot. At the moment I take it that we have one possible 1st Level lawyer involved in this case. No matter how you cut it, Mr. O.J. Simpson’s fate is being argued by lawyers who don’t carry an argument as well as he carried a football.

In particular, Mr. Simpson’s defense “Dream Team” doesn’t deserve the name, not if it is meant to indicate the level of excellence present on the 1992 United States Olympic basketball team, which included Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Charles Barkley, Patrick Ewing and Larry Bird. Mr. Simpson is in that league, but neither his attorneys nor the prosecution team are. Legal skill is one thing; a big ego and a flair for publicity are a different matter. Thus we need to qualify the common observation that Mr. Simpson has bought himself a rich man’s defense, one that is clearly beyond the means of the vast majority of criminal defendants. That is true in a measure; few could afford to hire these legal celebrities. But we need also to consider the possibility that this defense, like much of Mr. Simpson’s life, is a rich man’s folly in which flash and dash replace substance and discipline, in which the sizzle consumes the steak.

A Tentative Judgement

The arguments being made in this case aren’t going to be cited by future lawyers and legal historians as landmarks of legal reasoning. Judge Ito’s conduct is not going to be held up as an example of wisdom and courtroom authority. This case may well be remembered for the amount of time, effort, and money which is being squandered on it, but it doesn’t look like it will provide many examples of superior legal and courtroom craftsmanship.

Thus Mr. Simpson’s trial mocks the greatness on which it ultimately feeds. To be sure, that greatness is two decades in the past. But that greatness made it possible for him to become the wealthy 4th Level actor, corporate pitchman, and all-around celebrity that he was at the time of the murders. The fact that one of the victims was the defendant’s white wife gives the case some extra symbolic power; but not even that would be enough to generate national attention for a nondescript defendant.

No, it is Mr. Simpson’s athletic greatness that provides the cultural energy needed to make his trial into the so-called “Trial of the Century.” And yet this so-called “Trial of the Century” reflects a faith in celebrity and hype which undermines the deepest value inherent in that athletic greatness.

Tuesday, March 26, 2024

MacArthur Fellows, 1981-2018: Gender, Race and Educational Attainment

Kaba, A. J. (2020). MacArthur Fellows, 1981-2018: Gender, Race and Educational Attainment. Sociol- ogy Mind, 10, 86-126. https://doi.org/10.4236/sm.2020.102008

Abstract: This study examines the backgrounds of the winners of the MacArthur Fel- lowship grants from 1981 to 2018, from the conceptual framework of the term “genius”. The study finds that of the 1014 Fellows, Whites account for over eight out of every ten; minorities account for almost 20%; men account for almost 63%; White men account for 51.3%; Blacks account for 12.5%; Asians account for 5.9%; and Native Americans account for 1.2 percent. Of 965 terminal or highest degrees earned by 928 Fellows, 540 (56%) are doctorates, with the Ph.D. accounting for 514 (53.3%). White men earned the majority of all degrees (50.8%). Harvard University awarded the highest number of degrees, 119: Yale University, 61; University of California, Berkeley, 51; Columbia University, 44; and Princeton University, 41. All eight Ivy league institutions awarded 306 (31.7%) degrees to 300 (32.3%) Fellows. The 2020 U.S. News and World Report Top 25 institutions combined awarded 522 degrees (54.1%) to 514 Fellows (55.5%). There is a link among earned doctoral degrees, foreign-born males, and the overall gender gap in the study.

This table from the article shows what universities the fellows game from:

Sunday, March 3, 2024

On the rating of academic fields by insiders and outsiders

LeBron James 40K: Human excellence is a sometime topic here on the Savanna

My most systematic look is in a series of posts over the years about the MacArthur Foundation's so-called genius fellowship, which I eventually consolidated into a working paper: The Genius Chronicles: Going Boldly Where None Have Gone Before? In this post, the second in the series, I talk about athletes: The Hunt for Genius, Part 2: Crackpots, athletes, 4 kinds of judgment, training, and Cultural Context. I start with sprinters, who can be judged on a single dimension (fastest time at distance), then move through multidimensional disciplines (such as gymnastics, diving, or figure skating), to the ultimate multi-dimensional category, best athlete of all time. Then there's a bunch of posts under the rubric of TalentSearch, which includes much of the MacArthur material. But also this short post about the Bard: Just how good is Shakespeare anyhow? [Man, I'd forgotten I'd written some of this stuff.] Walter Murch on collective creativity. Ah, here's what I was looking for: TALENT SEARCH: Generating leads, qualifying them, and closing [#EmergentVentures]. And then there's my current (and ongoing) series on the greatest literary critics of all time.

All of which is an (over) elaborate lead-in to Sam Amick, As LeBron James hits 40,000-point threshold, the age-old GOAT debate has shifted, The Athletic, Mar. 2, 2024.

But to watch LeBron James surpass 40,000 points on Saturday night against the Denver Nuggets was to realize he is truly all by himself in the annals of basketball history. Jordan, nor anyone else in the field of 4,890 players who have taken the court since the NBA began in 1947, can touch this legacy he’s leaving.

The scoring is just one part of James’ sublime skill set, of course, but the meaning of this latest absurd feat is best understood by taking a moment to appreciate the elite company he has now left behind. Only seven players — LeBron, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (38,387), Karl Malone (36,928), Kobe Bryant (33,643), Jordan (32,292), Dirk Nowitzki (31,560) and Wilt Chamberlain (31,419) — had ever reached the NBA’s 30,000-point club. To call that group the cream of the crop is a gross understatement, as they represent just 0.0014 percent of the players who have ever laced up in the Association. And now, with James’ second-quarter, left-handed layup, he stands alone in this 40k club.

After telling us that he'd long worshipped at the altar of Michael Jordon, Amick says:

But this final chapter James is putting together, this curtain call for the ages that is ravaging the record books, is enough to convince me that the age-old GOAT debate is over. Not because James is the winner, though, but because their stories have become so different that the endless comparisons are becoming more pointless with every passing year.

Jordan’s two retirements — the first coming after his father, James, was killed in July 1993, and the second after he won his sixth title in 1998 — meant that he missed four seasons in all during the 19-year span of his career. We can play the what-if game from here until eternity, but it won’t change the fact that Jordan’s body of work is vastly different from James’ when it comes to staying power and longevity.

James, meanwhile, has somehow managed to live up to all of that “Chosen One” hype while surviving the increased scrutiny that came with the internet age along the way — for two straight decades. He took a far different path than Jordan, becoming one of just four players to win titles with three different franchises in the Cavs, Heat and Lakers (and none of the others — John Salley, Robert Horry and Danny Green — were leading men, so to speak).

So, the two are not readily comparable despite the fact that they play(ed) the same game. Moreover:

What’s more, the GOAT construct is tired and flawed in ways that do a disservice to them both. Contrary to popular belief, it’s OK to appreciate Picasso and Da Vinci at the same time and just leave it at that. There are enough flowers to go around.

There's more at the link.

Sunday, October 8, 2023

In partial defense of Sam Bankman-Fried on Shakespeare [there IS a serious issue here]

This passage, which, I gather, is from Michael Lewis’s biography of Sam Bankman-Fried, has been burning up the Twittersphere (Xosphere?) in past couple of days:

It is offered as an example and evidence of his, well, of some sort of deep deficiency.

I’m willing to believe that SBF is deeply flawed, but at the core of that passage is a serious issue.

Setting aside SBF's Bayesian framing, just what is going on that we – whoever WE are – have declared this 16th-17th century playwright to be the world’s greatest writer? Is it really possible that, with so many people having been born (and died) since Shakespeare, that none is as good a writer? Well, sure, in the spirit of anydamnthing is possible, it’s possible. But how likely? Is Shakespeare really better than, say, Rabindranath Tagore, George Eliot, Alexander Pushkin, Honoré de Balzac, Miguel de Cervantes, Dante Alighieri, Murasaki Shikibu, Sophocles, and so forth through a long list – and we haven’t even gotten to the Klingon masters? What’s the standard of judgment?

Anyone who approaches Shakespeare does so knowing that he is the best. Anyone who reads about his work, who studies it, can rattle off reason after reason why he is so good. In all this we are just replaying judgements and assertions that have been set in place by others over past centuries. We do not bring naïve sensibilities to Shakespeare. We do not and cannot approach him, or any other canonical writer, innocently. Our judgements are borrowed from others as much if not more than they are our own.

That’s how culture works and Bankman-Fried is right to question it, if however clumsily.

Having said all that, let’s continue on by considering Harold Bloom on Shakespeare's greatness. In a post with that title I quote Bloom as saying:

The principal insight that I’ve had in teaching and writing about Shakespeare is that there isn’t anyone before Shakespeare who actually gives you a representation of characters or human figures speaking out loud, whether to themselves or to others or both, and then brooding out loud, whether to themselves or to others or both, on what they themselves have said. And then, in the course of pondering, undergoing a serious or vital change, they become a different kind of character or personality and even a different kind of mind. We take that utterly for granted in representation. But it doesn’t exist before Shakespeare.

I’m in no position to contradict Bloom’s judgment on that. It seems credible to me. That’s sufficient to ensure Shakespeare a place in the canon. Shakespeare is a great writer, irreducibly a genius.

A genius, a place in the canon? That’s one thing. But the best ever? I know what the words mean, but I don’t believe that conjunction of them means much of anything. Or, rather, what it means is some expression of cultural faith, some display of cultural affinity. It’s not a matter of objective judgment. Literary achievement is too complex, too multidimensional, to admit of the kind of one-dimensional scalar ranking that puts one individual at the top.

Here's a post in which I explore that issue: The Hunt for Genius, Part 2: Crackpots, athletes, 4 kinds of judgment, training, and Cultural Context. I begin by observing that it is easy to determine just who is the fastest sprinter in the world. That’s something we know how to measure. What about the best gymnast? That’s more complicated. The best athlete? Still more complicated. Judging artistic accomplishment is, if anything, even more complex. I’m inclined to think we can rank artists in levels, where the artists in a given level are said to produce work of the same quality, but that it makes no sense to declare any particular artist to be the unique best.

Then we have to consider the fact that Shakespeare was writing at time when the world was changing. That puts him in a position to benefit from what evolutionary biologists call the founder effect. Oleg Sobchuk explains it [pp. 93-94]:

Imagine a group of monkeys living in an imaginary Unhappy valley. The valley is called Unhappy, because there are too many monkeys and too little food. In the search for more bananas and oranges, a group of four monkeys (who happen to be shorter than the rest of their group – just by chance) takes a risky trip to an unknown land, possibly full of predators. However, they get lucky: they find another valley with lots of bananas and no monkey competitors. So, these four settle in the Happy valley. They give birth to many children, all of which share the genes of this initial small group. As a result, most of the monkeys in the new colony are short – like their four ancestors. And – it is important to stress – they are short not because this trait is adaptive (i.e., it was not selected for), but simply due to chance. It just happened that the founders were short – by chance.

He then points out [p. 96]:

The contemporary literary field – Modern European literature – began to take shape in the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries. The main reason for this was the invention of the modern nation state: a radically new way to organize societies (Hobsbawm 1992). And at the avant-garde of nationalism were Germans. They did not have a united state, and they felt the need to obtain it more than anyone else. A state united by a single nation, a single language, and... a single literature. German intellectuals started thinking about their literary canon earlier than the intellectuals in other countries. They started inventing the canon.

And they centered this canon on Shakespeare because he suited their Romantic sensibilities. They constructed his greatness, not from nothing, but from the conjunction of his texts and their needs – I say a bit more about this here, where I originally quoted Sobchuk.

If we really wish to understand Shakespeare’s greatness, then, we must consider two things: 1) his texts, and 2) what we have made of his texts, and why? We now have the intellectual tools to state the issue. As for actually dealing with it, I believe that’s a long-term project.

Two other posts that are relevant:

The 2011 post is the first time I looked at the issue. The 2018 post looks at data on literary prestige gathered at the Stanford Literary Lab. 

Saturday, August 13, 2022

Winning a Grammy encourages an artist to amplify the unique aspects of their style

H/t Ted Underwood.

Thursday, May 19, 2022

Of Diet Coke, Elon Musk, and gaming programmers [Talent Search!]

Conversations with Tyler: Daniel Gross and Tyler Talk Talent (Ep. 150):

COWEN: Let’s start with a simple question. Talk us through what is a good interview question. Pick one and tell us why it’s good.

GROSS: We’re going to get to that in a minute, but I actually had a question on my mind for you, as I sit here and am holding a can of Diet Coke in my hand that I’m going to crack open. I was wondering — Bill Gates, Elon Musk, Lauren Summers, Warren Buffett, John Carmack — all of these people drink Diet Coke. What do you think is going on with that?

COWEN: I think they have habits of nervous energy and more energy than they know what to do with. There’s no series of challenges you can present to them that exhaust all of their nervous intellectual, mental energy, so it has to go somewhere. Some of them might twitch. Some of them just keep on working basically forever. But also, drinking Diet Coke is something you can do. You feel it’s not that bad for you. It probably is really bad for you, and the quantities just get racked up. I’ve seen this in many high achievers.

What’s your hypothesis?

GROSS: Yes, it’s a good question. Of course, many people in America drink Diet Coke, so I don’t exactly know what we’re selecting for, but that would be boring to just leave it there. I do wonder if this amazing molecule we discovered called caffeine is really good, and maybe these very high achievers are just slightly caffeinated all day long.

There’s also something very not neurotic about getting too worried about, is aspartame good for you, bad for you. Regular Coke, Cherry Coke — just drink it and move on. There’s a sturdiness there, and maybe, in fact, it is really bad for you, and the people who manage to be very productive while consuming it are spectacularly good. It’s like deadlifting on Jupiter — there’s extra gravity. Yes, I think it’s an interesting question. I do wonder how much of what we assume when we think about talent — how much of it is innate versus just environmental?

COWEN: I wonder if there isn’t some super-short time horizon about a lot of very successful people, that the task right before them has to seem so important that they’ll shove aside everything else in the world to maintain their level of energy, and as collateral damage, maybe some long-term planning gets shoved aside as well. It just seems so imperative to win this victory now.

GROSS: There is something, definitely, I’m struck by when I meet a lot of the very productive people I’ve met in my life. They seem to have extreme focus, but also extreme ease of focus, meaning it’s not even difficult for them to zone everything out and just focus on the thing that’s happening now. You might ask them even, “How do you do that? Is that a special skill that you have? And what type of drug are you taking?” And they look at you with a dazed and confused face. Anyway, you asked me what is a good interview question.

Elon Musk:

COWEN: No, I view our central message in the book as, right now, the world is failing at talent spotting, and this needs to be a much more major topic of conversation. We have our ideas on how to do it better, but if we can simply convince people of that, I will be relatively happy.

GROSS: Yes. I think, to me, proof of this is SpaceX. Look, SpaceX, until fairly recently, wasn’t really doing anything new from a physics standpoint. There weren’t any new physics discoveries that Elon, in a lab in LA, figured out that von Neumann couldn’t figure out. It’s yesterday’s technology. It’s just that he is a better router and allocator of capital to the right talent.

You see this time and time again. Many Elon companies are this. He just manages to put the right people doing the right thing. If you were to try to really explain to a five-year-old at a very basic level, why aren’t there more SpaceX’s, I think it comes down to the right people don’t have the right jobs for human progress. Once you start viewing the world through this lens, it’s really hard to unsee it, at least for me.

COWEN: The new book on SpaceX— it indicates that Elon personally interviewed the first few thousand people hired at SpaceX to make sure they would get the right people. That is a radical, drastic move. You know how much time that involves, and energy and attention.

GROSS: Jeff Dean, who’s probably the best engineer at Google, used to work at Digital Equipment Corporation. I think he was the 10th or 11th engineer Google hired, and he’s basically responsible for the fact that Google Search works.

He did crazy optimizations — back in the day when this mattered — like writing data that you’re going to access a lot on the exterior side of the disc, so it was a bit easier to access. Anyway, brilliant guy, still works at Google. Amazing software engineer. He told me once, while he was just waiting for code to compile, he would just go through a stack of résumés that Google was hiring. This was back when Google had maybe 10,000 people. He still had a pulse on the type of people they were bringing in.

You hear stories like this a lot, but very few organizations do it. The best organizations tend to do it. It really matters. It might matter more — especially in the current market that we’re in — it might matter more than capital, just allocating the right people to the right jobs.

Software engineers in the gaming industry:

GROSS: By the way, a small sidebar here: software engineers from the gaming industry are extremely underrated, and there’s a nice thread on the internet the other day, about how, effectively, the entire Starlink team who’s building SpaceX’s internet network are gaming engineers.

I think that whole corner of the world is really overlooked by adults who view gaming as somewhat of a pejorative. But it’s a very powerful sphere of human creativity, and I think more of it needs to be brought into day-to-day life. By the way, just in general, when I think about gaming and fun, more of that needs to be brought into day-to-day life. There should be a Michelin guide for having fun. What are the best ways to have fun?

There's more at the link.

Tuesday, April 12, 2022

Meet the Pioneers [TALENT SEARCH] & a home run on neural nets over neural nets

Bumping this to the top just to remind myself of Bhav Ashok's work.

From the Pioneer blog (H/t Tyler Cowen):

We’re excited to announce the winners of the first Pioneer Tournament.

In the short 3 months since its launch, Pioneer has garnered a global reach. Our first tournament featured applicants from 100 countries, ranging from 12 to 87 years old. Almost half of our players hailed from countries like India, UK, Canada, Nigeria, Germany, South Africa, Singapore, France, Turkey, and Kenya. Projects were spread across almost every industry -- AI research, physics, chemistry, cryptocurrency and more.

We started this company to find the curious outsiders of the world. We think we’re off to a good start.
They've announced 17 winners for this round, including Leonard Bogdonoff, who got an Emergent Ventures grant (New Savanna post here) from Tyler Cowen (who is an advisor to the program). The winners of this round are mostly tech-oriented and range in age from 16 to 29).

My favorite, which simply reflects my interests:
Bhav Ashok (25, Singapore & USA, @bhavashok)

Bhav came up with a way to train a neural network to compress other neural networks. The compression process produces a faster and smaller network without sacrificing accuracy. This has the potential to vastly improve response time in self-driving cars, satellite imaging, and mobile apps.

Noteworthy: By age 12, Bhav was programming and making money selling graphics add-ons for games. At 16, he started doing research in machine learning for bioinformatics. He left Singapore for Austin, where he created TexteDB and founded a company. Bhav later enrolled in the Masters program at CMU, earned the highest GPA in his program, founded a computer vision club, and worked on various research projects.
Here's an arXiv preprint for the compression scheme (arXiv:1709.06030v2 [cs.LG]):
N2N Learning: Network to Network Compression via Policy Gradient Reinforcement Learning
Anubhav Ashok, Nicholas Rhinehart, Fares Beainy, Kris M. Kitani
(Submitted on 18 Sep 2017 (v1), last revised 17 Dec 2017 (this version, v2))

While bigger and deeper neural network architectures continue to advance the state-of-the-art for many computer vision tasks, real-world adoption of these networks is impeded by hardware and speed constraints. Conventional model compression methods attempt to address this problem by modifying the architecture manually or using pre-defined heuristics. Since the space of all reduced architectures is very large, modifying the architecture of a deep neural network in this way is a difficult task. In this paper, we tackle this issue by introducing a principled method for learning reduced network architectures in a data-driven way using reinforcement learning. Our approach takes a larger `teacher' network as input and outputs a compressed `student' network derived from the `teacher' network. In the first stage of our method, a recurrent policy network aggressively removes layers from the large `teacher' model. In the second stage, another recurrent policy network carefully reduces the size of each remaining layer. The resulting network is then evaluated to obtain a reward -- a score based on the accuracy and compression of the network. Our approach uses this reward signal with policy gradients to train the policies to find a locally optimal student network. Our experiments show that we can achieve compression rates of more than 10x for models such as ResNet-34 while maintaining similar performance to the input `teacher' network. We also present a valuable transfer learning result which shows that policies which are pre-trained on smaller `teacher' networks can be used to rapidly speed up training on larger `teacher' networks.

For some comments on the idea, though not this version, see this page.

Why do I like this work? Because, to quote James Brown, it feels good. Why does it feel good? Because I think the neocortex does something like that, and does it perhaps two or three levels deep. And why do I think that?

Well, that would take a bit of explaining and a really good explanation would likely range into areas beyond my technical competence, both in neuroscience and computation. Still, take a look at a paper Dave Hays and I published .some years ago [1].  Here's the abstract:
The phenomena of natural intelligence can be grouped into five classes, and a specific principle of information processing, implemented in neural tissue, produces each class of phenomena. (1) The modal principle subserves feeling and is implemented in the reticular formation. (2) The diagonalization principle subserves coherence and is the basic principle, implemented in neocortex. (3) Action is subserved by the decision principle, which involves interlinked positive and negative feedback loops, and resides in modally differentiated cortex. (4) The problem of finitization resolves into a figural principle, implemented in secondary cortical areas; figurality resolves the conflict between pro-positional and Gestalt accounts of mental representations. (5) Finally, the phenomena of analysis reflect the action of the indexing principle, which is implemented through the neural mechanisms of language.

These principles have an intrinsic ordering (as given above) such that implementation of each principle presupposes the prior implementation of its predecessor. This ordering is preserved in phylogeny: (1) mode, vertebrates; (2) diagonalization, reptiles; (3) decision, mammals; (4) figural, primates; (5) indexing. Homo sapiens sapiens. The same ordering appears in human ontogeny and corresponds to Piaget's stages of intellectual development, and to stages of language acquisition.

Principles 2 through 5 are implemented in cortical tissue and its afferent and efferent linkages to subcortical tissue. Think of coherence (2) as being implemented in something like a conventional neural net. Action (3), finitization (4), and analysis (5) would then be implemented through compression over downstream networks.

So, Tyler Cowen's first class had at least one member in one of my sweet zones (graffiti) and Pioneer's first class has a member in another sweet zone (neural computation). When and where will the third turn up?

* * * * *

[1] William Benzon and David Hays, Principles and Development of Natural Intelligence, Journal of Social and Biological Structures, Vol. 11, No. 8, July 1988, 293-322. Academia.edu: https://www.academia.edu/235116/Principles_and_Development_of_Natural_Intelligence. SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1504212.

Tuesday, September 14, 2021

Hot streaks in art, science, and film [Talent search]

Liu, L., Dehmamy, N., Chown, J. et al. Understanding the onset of hot streaks across artistic, cultural, and scientific careers. Nat Commun 12, 5392 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25477-8

Abstract:

Across a range of creative domains, individual careers are characterized by hot streaks, which are bursts of high-impact works clustered together in close succession. Yet it remains unclear if there are any regularities underlying the beginning of hot streaks. Here, we analyze career histories of artists, film directors, and scientists, and develop deep learning and network science methods to build high-dimensional representations of their creative outputs. We find that across all three domains, individuals tend to explore diverse styles or topics before their hot streak, but become notably more focused after the hot streak begins. Crucially, hot streaks appear to be associated with neither exploration nor exploitation behavior in isolation, but a particular sequence of exploration followed by exploitation, where the transition from exploration to exploitation closely traces the onset of a hot streak. Overall, these results may have implications for identifying and nurturing talents across a wide range of creative domains.

H/t Tyler Cowen.

Monday, August 16, 2021

Marc Andreessen: An existential crisis in science [Talent search]

Richard Hanania interviews Marc Andreessen, Flying X-Wings into the Death Star: Andreessen on Investing and Tech, August 16, 2021:

On basic research:

That said, something has gone very wrong in the basic research complex that we do have in the universities and in the federal funding system. We know something has gone very wrong because of the replication crisis. John Ioannidis at Stanford wrote this classic paper where he said “50% of published research is non-reproducible” which means you basically can’t reproduce the same results meaning you can’t do anything with the research, it’s basically fake. Interestingly he was studying biomedical research, which is an area of research you think would be very focused on getting things right. It subsequently turned out he might have been underestimating the problem. Fields like biomedicine might be as fake as 70%.

There’s this other amazing study that maybe we can link to for your listeners. It was a study of medical trials funded by a branch of the federal apparatus, heart and lung research. It’s this great chart that shows that new medicines stopped working at the point when the funders of the research require the researchers to register their experiments ahead of time. It’s basically this chart that shows for 30 years or something you had all of these new medicines coming out and the research results were like “wow this really works we should give it to patients,” and then there’s this point where the people running medical trials were forced to pre-register their hypothesis with the funding agency. They were forced to basically say upfront “this is exactly what we’re testing for; here’s exactly how we’re going to measure the results.” Subsequent to that point, new medicines have stopped working.

There’s two possible implications to this, right? The low-hanging fruit argument is that it used to be easier to make medicines that work and now we’ve harvested the low hanging fruit in science and technology, now it’s harder to do it and it’s just a coincidence. The other explanation is that these old medicines didn’t work either. They were basically fake research results based on data mining or p-hacking in such a way that the results were fraudulent. The implication is that there are a lot of drugs on the market today that don’t actually work.

Anyway, science right now is in an existential crisis. This is a real, real issue, and there’s now a generation of scientists who specialize in pointing this out and analyzing it. Andrew Gelman and others. I’ll give you an example: I had a conversation with the long-time head of one of the big federal funding agencies for healthcare research who is also a very accomplished entrepreneur, and I said, “do you really think it’s true that 50-70% of biomedical research is fake?” This is a guy who has spent his life in this world. And he said “oh no, that’s not true at all. It’s 90%.” [Richard laughs]. I was like “holy shit,” I was flabbergasted that it could be 90%.

He’s like “well look, 90% of everything is shit”, which is literally this thing called Sturgeon’s law which says that 90% of everything is bad. 90% of every novel written is bad, 90% of music, 90% of art… 90% of everything is bad. So his analysis was, anything you get in the field of medical experimentation, biomedical development, and this is going to be true of any field, there’s like five labs total in the world that are really good at what they’re doing and doing really cutting edge work. And this is true of quantum computing; pick any field for advanced technology you want.

So those five labs have a pretty good shot at doing interesting work, even some of that is going to reproduce and some of it isn’t. But once you get out of those top five labs, it’s pretty much make-work, incremental, marginal improvements at best, and a complete waste of time otherwise. And I said “good God, why does the other 90% continue to get funded if you know this?” And he said, “well, there are all these universities and professors who have tenure, there are all these journals, there are all these systems and people have been promised lifetime employment.” Anyway, a longwinded way of saying that we have pretty serious structural and incentive problems in the research complex.

Finding talent:

Richard: When Peter Thiel was doing his Thiel fellowship for people, it was seen as this huge eccentricity. That was 10, 20 years ago? You pay people to drop out of school. That’s fascinating that it’s now a better credential to have dropped out of Harvard in Silicon Valley than to have actually finished.

Marc: The Thiel fellowship is super interesting. I’m super open on these things, and even I was like “really? 19-year-olds?” Basically he paid a bunch of 19-year-olds to drop out of college, they all moved to a group house in San Francisco, and he told them all “go nuts.” On the surface you would say “oh my god! What are you doing? Let’s hope that 100% of them survive.” And if you look at what that cohort has done, it’s a very small number of kids… that’s a point Peter makes, it wasn’t that many kids! People really freaked out given the fact that it was 20-year-olds or something.

That tells you how important the social signal and status stuff is. He calls the existing universities the Catholic Church; part of the Reformation, sells indulgences. They know full well what they’re doing… they know they’re corrupt, they know their system is broken. So of course they’re going to disproportionately panic at the indication… they see Martin Luther walking down the street of course they’re going to freak out.

But you look at that cohort of kids, they’ve been successful beyond belief! Ethereum! Ethereum is a $300 billion outcome in ten years; a Thiel Fellow. Sigma, another company we’re invested in is extraordinarily successful… they’re revolutionizing computer design; Thiel Fellow. And there’s another dozen of these that are like these really spectacular breakthrough… these people are just doing incredibly fundamental work. Centered in tech, but of course that’s where people can do breakthrough work these days.

There it is. That worked. It begs this question, “OK, why are we not all doing that? There’s something there.”

Richard: I think Peter Thiel being able to select 20 people is probably the point. [laughs] I went to law school at the University of Chicago. It just showed me you could have so many smart people… and I just felt like law school was for people who didn’t know what to do with their lives. That was me too, I didn’t go to a great college, I didn’t know what to do. That's what they were there for. Selection is everything, so you’re right. Not everybody can found Ethereum, but people can think about starting a hardware store instead of getting some worthless degree, I think that’s realistic for people.

Marc: Selection is a big part of everything, I can see the general point. I will say I’m sure it’s just not 20. I’m sure it’s not 2 million, but I’m sure it’s not 20.

Richard: Well even if it’s 2,000…

Marc: Yeah! Well how about that? It’s not like the Harvard undergraduate class, how many kids per year? Probably a couple thousand freshmen a year. That’s not that big. We load onto those kids the responsibility apparently for determining every aspect of how our society works. We’re making some selection there already. What's the total reporting staff for the New York Times? 800?

Here’s the way we’re thinking about it from a tech standpoint. You can’t just go flat up against the bundle, you can’t do a frontal assault on the death star. Even if you could, and people have tried to full on create new universities, you run up against the accreditation cartel. It’s one of these government regulatory capture things. Universities are a government supported cartel, and quite literally they have access to federal student lending through the accreditation process, the accreditation process is formed by the incumbent. The government has delegated to these institutions the ability to decide who gets to compete against them, and the answer is nobody gets to compete against them. These are nominally non-profits but you would never know it looking at their financial statements.

It is this idealized, stagnant entrenchment of the status quo which is extremely powerful. You’re not going to frontal assault it. What you can do and what we’re doing is you can slowly strip away pieces of it; you can pull pieces out. You can for sure pull out the actual skills training part of it. You can pull out the dating part of it. You can pull out a lot of the logistical components of it. You can pull out housing, you can pull out the food component.

And then you get into the serious stuff. Can you re-credentialize? Can you create new forms of signal and status that are not just based on these legacy institutions? It’s the X-wing death star thing. Any individual effort probably won’t work, but if we run enough experiments over time and strip off enough pieces I think we’ll be able to start having an impact.

There's more at the link.

Saturday, July 17, 2021

Exploration and consolidation in the trajectory of creative careers [Talent Search]

From the abstract of the linked article:

Hot streaks dominate the main impact of creative careers. Despite their ubiquitous nature across a wide range of creative domains, it remains unclear if there is any regularity underlying the beginning of hot streaks. Here, we develop computational methods using deep learning and network science and apply them to novel, large-scale datasets tracing the career outputs of artists, film directors, and scientists, allowing us to build high-dimensional representations of the artworks, films, and scientific publications they produce. By examining individuals' career trajectories within the underlying creative space, we find that across all three domains, individuals tend to explore diverse styles or topics before their hot streak, but become notably more focused in what they work on after the hot streak begins. Crucially, we find that hot streaks are associated with neither exploration nor exploitation behavior in isolation, but a particular sequence of exploration followed by exploitation, where the transition from exploration to exploitation closely traces the onset of a hot streak. Overall, these results unveil among the first identifiable regularity underlying the onset of hot streaks, which appears universal across diverse creative domains, suggesting that a sequential view of creative strategies that balances experimentation and implementation may be particularly powerful for producing long-lasting contributions, which may have broad implications for identifying and nurturing creative talents.

If I look at my own career, my undergraduate years were one's of exploration, which I then consolidated through my MA Thesis on "Kubla Khan." I went off to graduate school where I did more exploration. I took English lit courses in my department while at the same time working on computational linguistics with David Hays and reading in the whole cognitive science literature on language. Consolidation through my disseration, "Cognitive Science and Literary Theory." Then things and stuff for twenty years while writing a series of articles with David Hays and doing Visualization: The Second Computer Revolution with Richard Friedhoff. Explore and consolidate while doing Beethoven's Anvil (2001) and consolidate after with a series of four papers on literary topics for PsyArt: A Hyperlink Journal for the Psychological Study of the Arts. That's the period when I wrote up my notes on Attractor-Nets, a kind of consolidation stretching over my whole career from symbolic computation in the 1970s to complex dynamics (Walter Freeman) in the music book. Since then....

Saturday, July 3, 2021

Talent and working hard aren't enough to become megarich. You also need "luck."

That is to say, perhaps, that we have, say, 20 people with the talent and work ethic of Bill Gates. One of them is "lucky" and becomes a world famous tech billionaire. One is "unlucky" and lives in poverty writing brilliant novels that don't get published because they don't fit the needs of the current market as publishers understand it. The others do well enough, some become worth 100s of millions, others only 10s or even mere millions. All of them are talented, all of them work hard. But only one makes the Big Time.

What kind of value system recognizes that one while all but ignoring the others? Is that the world we live in?

And what is this thing called luck? I suppose it's just the cumulative effect of many intersecting streams of events. Some streams are driven by purposeful individuals and agents. Others, like the weather, are just there. The intersections, more or less random. Those intersections are where we find luck. In this view good luck and bad luck are morally the same, neither being driven directly by human intent. If things work out well for an individual or individuals at that intersection, we call that good luck. Bad luck is simply when the intersection doesn't work out well.

Do we really want to live in a world that values good luck above all else?Do Bezos, Musk, Zuckerberg, Buffett, Gates and the others really deserve the wealth they have been given? Is that really the traceable result of their unique efforts? Or are the beneficiaries of random intersections of events.

I'm imagining an 'intergenerational moral ratchet' that works something like this: We have a bunch of people of varying abilities and inclinations, all working hard. Among them is a group of particularly talented and hardworking individuals. Two or three of them, out of, what 50s, 100s, are lucky and become extraordinarily successful. Their stories are told and it is widely believed that they deserve their fortune because "they worked hard." In imitation of them, the next generation works a bit harder. Again, a few have luck and become extraordinarily successful. This goes on for generation after generation.

The result? A world of workaholics. A few become very successful. Others less so. Still others somehow go nowhere fast. But rewards are handed out according to luck. That's a society of people who are addicted to work and don't know how to play.

Monday, June 14, 2021

Rodriguez – Cold Fact [annals of over-looked genius]

From Wikipedia:

Cold Fact is the debut album from American singer-songwriter Rodriguez. It was released in the United States on the Sussex label in March 1970. The album sold very poorly in the United States (Rodriguez was himself an unknown in the U.S.), but managed to sell well in both South Africa and Australia, with Rodriguez touring Australia in 1979.

...his music was also extremely successful and influential in South Africa, where he is believed to have sold more records than Elvis Presley.

In 1971 the album was released in South Africa by A&M Records. In 1976, several thousand copies of Cold Fact were found in a New York warehouse and sold out in Australia in a few weeks. It went to No. 23 on the Australian album charts in 1978, staying on the charts for fifty-five weeks. In 1998 Cold Fact was awarded a platinum disc in South Africa, and was five-times platinum in Australia. Rodriguez has since toured South Africa and Australia with much success, but remained relatively unknown in his native country of the US. This began to change after the reissues of his albums in the US by Light in the Attic Records in 2008 and 2009, and even further in 2012 with the Academy Award winning documentary film Searching for Sugar Man, which soon led to appearances on major American television shows like 60 Minutes and The Late Show with David Letterman.

Cold Fact has sold 201,000 since Nielsen SoundScan started tracking in 1991, 173,000 of those after the film opened, 98,000 in the wake of the Oscar win. Coming from Reality has moved 105,000 albums, 99,000 since the movie hit, 60,000 post-Academy Awards. And the soundtrack album (which was picked up by Sony’s Legacy catalog division) boasts 152,000 in sales.

Wednesday, May 19, 2021

Kids and Music 6: Get Aboard Henry Lau’s Freestyle Express [Born to Groove]

Let’s pick up where we left off with my previous post on Lau, Born to Groove, Kids and Music 3: Henry Lau has a good heart & knows how to work with kids [kawaii alert!]. We know he was born in Canada to Chinese parents and was headed for a career in classical music when SM Entertainment sent him to K-Pop stardom. Last year he started a series of videos in which he appeared with various young Korean musicians, Henry Together. My earlier post featured a young violinist, YoEun Seol. I also covered his work with Kwak Dakyung, a young jazz musician, at the end of my previous post in this series.

Henry worked with twelve musicians in the first season of Henry Together. Now we’re ready for a second season. But first...

Music Genius friends from Henry Together

Some of the musicians from the first season got together and did a collaborative performance of one of Henry’s songs, “Trust Your Face.” The music was arranged and the project coordinated by the guitarist, Sean Song.

Listen to how all the voices and instruments work and coordinate together.

Kids these days!

Now we’re ready for the first post of Season two, after which we’ll return to season one. It’s confusing, I know, but this isn’t about chronology.

Can We Do A Concert Through Zoom?

They’re all on screen chatting with Henry. Have they become a community? Henry suggests they get together and perform that tune that we’ve all heard a jillion times, “Canon in D.”

And so Henry leads them through putting an arrangement together. I don’t know whether or not it simply happened online Just Like That, or whether there’s been some behind the scenes work, and how much editing has been done. None of that really matters. What matters is that Henry is showing us that music doesn’t just fall from the sky. It has to be planned out and arranged.

So they give it a try (at about 3:32). Sounds a bit disorganized, no? Still, Henry is encouraging. They give it another try (about 4:24). They run through it, but we don’t hear most of it. They finish, Henry’s encouraging, but they all know better. After all, they are good musicians. They’re not fooled by this well-intended positivity. They work on things and we get the finished version, with Henry joining on violin (about 6:01).

Henry’s family having a little recital

Let’s leave Henry Together for a minute and see him with family and friends. His brother plays some stride (boogie-woogie), with Henry joining. His mother sits down at the piano, then his father.

Nine Year Old Piano Prodigy’s Fast Hands

Let's return to the first season of Henry Together. Henry meets young pianist, Seo Yul Shin in episode 6.

They chat. She tells Henry she’s ten “this year” (c. 2:04) and that she’s seen every episode of Henry Together. And she thinks that she’s a better pianist than Jichan (Episode 1). What does she want to eat? Chicken. He orders two fried chickens.

She says she was nervous in the car coming over, but not now. It’s cool “to see someone from TV sit right in front of me” (2:51). Ah, the melding of two worlds, TV world and the Real World. He brings in the chicken and they eat – as you may know by know, sharing a meal is part of Henry’s protocol for these meetings. And then, out of nowhere, she asks him his blood type (3:14): “Just the ideal type for a lot of people,” a remark she regards with well-justified bemusement. I'm sure many of Henry's fans want to know the answer to that question, but a ten-year old? Back to eating and more chit-chat. They talk about music lessons and stuff. “More cola?”

To music. She plays Chopin, Waltz No. 3, aka “Cat Waltz” (about 5:07). When she’s finished we hear off-screen clapping. Henry’s impressed. How does she react? “I made a lot of mistakes.” She may be a child, but you don’t get as good as she is without being rigorously self-critical.

Henry suggests that they play some Paganini together, remarking that eye contact is very important in collaboration (c. 7:13). After they’ve finished Henry gives the piano a glissando from the upper register down. She follows, doing it in the middle-to-lower register. “I’ve never tried scraping before.” “You’ve never done this? Try again. Mom’s not watching, right? Because my mom didn’t let me do this stuff either.” They play around until they get together on a gliss and a final note.

She starts playing a Piazolla tango (8:26). Henry joins in on violin (reading music laying on the piano), occasionally having intonation problems. I can’t really tell whether he’s sharp or flat, but he’s definitely a bit off here and there. But who cares? They’re getting acquainted. At the end she throws in a gliss to a high note.

Now Henry gets serious (at about 9:31). “Let’s just play what we feel.” She’s puzzled. He shows her, playing some arpeggios on the keyboard. She follows. “You’ve only been playing off the sheet music so far. Forget the sheet music for now. Today you just play what you feel. So far you practice a ton and you try to be perfect, but music is also about being free.” He works with her a little. She plays two hands. Henry joins in, one hand. They stop. Chat a bit. Start again, she’s on piano, he’s on violin. The video ends.

See what he’s going? Do you understand why I’ve entitled this post Henry Lau’s Freestyle Express?

Henry and Piano Prodigy Perform a New Song

Here’s their performance. They open with one of many sets of variations on something by Paganini – ending with that glissando she learned from Henry. Then Seo Yul Shin plays a solo (don’t recognize it, couldn’t make out the title on the screen), and another, Chopin’s “Cat Waltz.”

They conclude with the song they made up during their “getting to know you” phase (6:30). She decided to call it “Wind.”

Season One Reunion

Henry opened season two with a reunion of the musicians from the first season. Here it is almost without comment. Henry does say that he learned from his young prodigies, that they forced him to new music. Any reason to doubt him? No.

Coaching Bonus

Henry is doing a lot of coaching with these young musicians. I have two other posts involving coaching:

An interesting example of vocal coaching, Oct. 16, 2014, https://new-savanna.blogspot.com/2014/10/an-interesting-example-of-vocal-coaching.html.

Ride the Lizard, Valkyrie, Ride It!, November 15, 2013, http://new-savanna.blogspot.com/2013/11/music-ride-lizard-valkyrie-ride-it.html.

Thursday, October 8, 2020

The Genius Chronicles: Going Boldly Where None Have Gone Before?

I've bumped this to the top of the queue because it's that time of year and on general principle. I first published the report in 2013 and have updated it through 2018. After that, what's the point? It's the same old same old.


I've now assembled my posts on the MacArthur Fellows Program into a single document under the above title. You can download it here at Academia.edu, but also here, at my Scribd page. Abstract, introduction, and embedded document below.
Abstract: This is an informal evaluation of the MacArthur Fellowship Program, the so-called "genius grants." I argue that the program functions basically as a PR vehicle for the MacArthur Foundation and for the foundation world in general. I also suggest that it could achieve better results by not awarding grants to people who already have jobs at elite institutions. There are discussions of how talent is evaluated, the cultural factors in genius, accounts of three elite institutions (Johns Hopkins, RPI, and SUNY Buffalo), and discussions of Louis Armstrong, John von Neumann, and Richard Feynman.
Why Look for Geniuses?

As examples of the kinds of people I mean by the word “genius”, consider the following list: Voltaire, John von Neumann, Pāṇini, St. Augustine, Sappho, Cervantes, Florence Nightingale, Sequoia, Murasaki Shikibu, Queen Elizabeth I of England, Carl Friedrich Gauss, Goethe and Mozart. Those are people of such an exalted nature that we wouldn’t expect more than one per class of MacArthur Fellows, if that. If that’s the standard, then perhaps the real question is whether or not the program has identified any geniuses at all. And it’s likely we’re not going to know for a while, as it takes awhile for individual contributions to work their way into and through the culture.

Of course, the foundation itself has never said it was on the prowl for geniuses:
Journalists and others sometimes use “genius grant” as a shorthand reference for the MacArthur Fellowship. We avoid using the term “genius” to describe MacArthur Fellows because it connotes a singular characteristic of intellectual prowess. The people we seek to support express many other important qualities: ability to transcend traditional boundaries, willingness to take risks, persistence in the face of personal and conceptual obstacles, capacity to synthesize disparate ideas and approaches.
But I wonder what would have happened if the "genius" label hadn't been stuck to the MacArthur Fellows Program. Would the it have taken old in the public imagination – to the extent that it has, which isn't up there with the Oscars, Emmys, and Grammies, but it’s pretty high – without that label?

That seems unlikely. The term “genius” has an immediate impact. The phrase “exceptionally capable individual” does not, and it just gets worse if you add further qualifications, such as the notion that these individuals are pursuing ideas and projects off the beaten track. No if the program was to get any traction in the public mind, then “genius” it had to be.

That the term got stuck on the Fellows Program by journalists rather than by the foundation is a public relations bonus. And as long as the term sticks, the program can distance itself from the term all it wants to without, in fact, threatening the publicity.

For that, as Waldemar Nielsen noted in 1997, is what the program is. It’s public relations not simply for the MacArthur Foundation, but for the world of elite foundations. The genius grants put a meritocratic sheen on a system that is permeated by cronyism. What is more disturbing – for cronyism, after all, is an old story – is that we live in a world undergoing massive and potentially cataclysmic change, but in social, cultural, and political systems, and in our relationship to the environment. In such a world we desperately need new ideas, not further assurances that the old institutions have things well in hand.

People need hope for the future. They need to believe that the world is somehow on their side. The possibility that a genius can be picked out of the cornfield or the alleyway and do great things, that is a comforting belief. It says that the world CAN change for the better.

But the MacArthur Foundation isn’t even looking for the most gifted people in America, they’re looking for the best ones in a certain very diffuse social network. And that social network is biased toward an institutional world rooted in the 19th Century. By awarding a very high percentage of their fellowships – a two-thirds majority in 2013 – to people who have jobs at elite institutions the foundation the MacArthur Fellows Program reinforces the network of institutions that are failing us. They could do better, but they won’t.

Tuesday, October 6, 2020

Once again, it's a Big Mac Attack! The "genius" prizes have been announced for 2020. Guess what? Most of the winners have good gigs and don't need the money.

The Big Macs are so predictable from year to year that I'm not bothering to write original prose this time out. This text has been revised from last year's. New numbers, a few other things – no list of institutions (find that at the NYTimes or at the MacArthur Foundation), otherwise the same. Be sure to check out my full report, listed at the end of the post.

No doubt they are a worthy crew. But the foundation keeps doing it, by which I mean they award the majority of their Big Mac fellowships to people who already have secure jobs at good places, mostly colleges and universities. Some of these are the kinds of places that prompt rich people to hire consultants who then fake test results and/or bribe officials on behalf of their students.

I started keeping track of this in 2013, when 63% of the fellowships went to fellows with secure gigs. This year it’s 67% (14 out or 21), up from 55% last year. Here’s how it’s gone since 2013:
2013: 63%
2014: 52%
2015: 54%
2016: 57%
2017: 50%
2018: 52%
2019: 65%
2020: 67%
What, you ask, is wrong with that? Well, the original intent was to fund very creative people whose very creativity made it difficult or impossible for them to get such jobs, people who had to wait tables, do temp office work, and who knows, maybe work in an Amazon warehouse schlepping orders. The idea was to fund people who really need the money in order to exercise their creativity.

These aren’t those people. They have secure gigs. My suggestion was and remains simple: Don’t fund people who don’t need the money (in order to survive). Stop taking the easy way out by funding people with university gigs. Take more risks.

In previous years I’ve gone to the trouble of making a table of the winners and listing their field, their place of employment (for most of them, though a few don’t have regular gigs), and classifying them into secure university posts (guaranteed employment), pre-tenure university (not yet guaranteed), other-employed, and self-employed. This year I’ve not done that. It’s tiring and pointless.

This year the foundation gave out 21 awards, of which 14 went to people at universities, colleges, or research institutes; six others were independent and so could really use the money ($625,000 over five years), while one had a non-university gig.

If you want to read my arguments, you can check out my working paper, which includes year-by-year commentary along with more general commentary on the program and on talent search:

The Genius Chronicles: Going Boldly Where None Have Gone Before? Version 67 Working Paper, October 2018, 61 pp.

Saturday, November 9, 2019

I’ve STILL got a lot goin’ on! – Literature, AI, progress, talent search, Human Swarm, the hallucinated city [Ramble 15]

The last time I did this was October 18, and many of the items that were on my list then are still on it. So let’s start with that list (items preceded by an asterisk).

COMPLETED

*Heart of Darkness

What I was thinking about: I’ve thinking about a post that provisionally ‘solves’ the problem of ring composition in that text.


Still on deck: I’m also thinking to submit a book proposal to the Dead Letter Office at Punctum Books.

IN PROCESS, PROGRESS MADE

*Intelligence

What I was thinking about: What is it? I think about this from time to time. The notion that “intelligence is what intelligence tests say it is” is not as empty as it seems–I’ve been through this before on the five factor personality model.

I think that’s become transformed into a piece I’m going to do for 3 Quarks Daily this coming Monday. I’ll cover the five factor model and a few more things, some of which I’ve recently blogged about: common sense knowledge, calculation and computation, speech to text (over at Facebook), and philosophical arguments about the computational mind. I'll be adding some topics, such as machine translation, and one or two other things most likely.

*The Human Swarm

What I was thinking about: I’ve got to keep reading and blogging my way through Mark Moffett’s The Human Swarm, which takes a broad view of the nature of society. The idea is to write a formal review (for 3 Quarks Daily) when I’m done and then package the whole set as a working paper.

What I’ve done: I’ve now posted six installments and I’m not even halfway through the book. This is going to take another month and I don’t know how many installments plus the review.

*Visualizing Form and Evolution in Literary History: A response to Nan Z. Da and to Moretti and Sobchuk

What I was thinking about: That’s the working title for a longish article I’m working on. It will be of a methodological and theoretical nature. I’ve posted a working paper of draft material for the second part of the article, On the direction of literary history: How should we interpret that 3300 node graph in Macroanalysis, Version 2. I’ve sent that to a few folks and gotten useful feedback [...]

The first part of the article will about the cultural analog to phylogeny in biological evolution, which Moretti and Sobchuk touched on. The crucial distinction is between a tree-like structure and a network structure. [...]

What I’ve done: I’ve started working on draft material for this first part. I looks like I’ve got to introduce the human mind into the argument and say more about cultural evolution than I’d originally planned to. I’d like to get this done in the coming week.

*Talent Search

What I was thinking about: I’ve got a bunch of posts on searching for talent that I want to gather into a working paper. I suppose I’ve got two notions.

What I’ve done: Gathered the posts into a document, and done a bit of formatting. But I still need to write the introduction in which I explain what it all means.

STILL PENDING

*Progress, painful but real

What I was thinking about: Here I just want to provide a setting for two papers by David Hays. “On the Painfulness of Progress” is in memory of his friend Raoul Naroll, who argued “that progress causes ... pain during periods of transition but alleviates this and other kinds of pain over the long term.” In “Relativism and Progress” Hays examines worldwide statistics on health, wealth, and social life and includes an appendix with 32 scatter plots depicting the data.

What I’ve done: Nothing.

NEW PROJECT

The Hallucinated City

This is a photo project. I’m working toward an exhibit. when and where I don’t know. Right now I’m just trying to figure out what. My theme – The Hallucinated City. The idea is to group photos into sets around that theme, with distinctly different kinds of photos in head set. Some will just be photos of cityscapes; but others will be graffiti shots, abstract patterns of light, interiors of Wayquay’s junktique store, and who knows what else.

So far I’ve posted four (potential) sets in the series, plus some photos of Midtown Manhattan, Herald Square to the Theater District. I’ve got two most sets organized but not posted. I figure I need to do at least ten sets before I have some idea of what I’m up to.

More later.