Talent and working hard aren't enough to become megarich. You also need "luck."

Working hard is necessary but not sufficient.

— Paul Graham (@paulg) July 3, 2021

That is to say, perhaps, that we have, say, 20 people with the talent and work ethic of Bill Gates. One of them is "lucky" and becomes a world famous tech billionaire. One is "unlucky" and lives in poverty writing brilliant novels that don't get published because they don't fit the needs of the current market as publishers understand it. The others do well enough, some become worth 100s of millions, others only 10s or even mere millions. All of them are talented, all of them work hard. But only one makes the Big Time.

What kind of value system recognizes that one while all but ignoring the others? Is that the world we live in?

And what is this thing called luck? I suppose it's just the cumulative effect of many intersecting streams of events. Some streams are driven by purposeful individuals and agents. Others, like the weather, are just there. The intersections, more or less random. Those intersections are where we find luck. In this view good luck and bad luck are morally the same, neither being driven directly by human intent. If things work out well for an individual or individuals at that intersection, we call that good luck. Bad luck is simply when the intersection doesn't work out well.

Do we really want to live in a world that values good luck above all else?Do Bezos, Musk, Zuckerberg, Buffett, Gates and the others really deserve the wealth they have been given? Is that really the traceable result of their unique efforts? Or are the beneficiaries of random intersections of events.

I'm imagining an 'intergenerational moral ratchet' that works something like this: We have a bunch of people of varying abilities and inclinations, all working hard. Among them is a group of particularly talented and hardworking individuals. Two or three of them, out of, what 50s, 100s, are lucky and become extraordinarily successful. Their stories are told and it is widely believed that they deserve their fortune because "they worked hard." In imitation of them, the next generation works a bit harder. Again, a few have luck and become extraordinarily successful. This goes on for generation after generation.

The result? A world of workaholics. A few become very successful. Others less so. Still others somehow go nowhere fast. But rewards are handed out according to luck. That's a society of people who are addicted to work and don't know how to play.