Tyler Cowen, Alison Gopnik on Childhood Learning, AI as a Cultural Technology, and Rethinking Nature vs. Nurture (Ep. 265), Conversations with Tyler, Dec. 17, 2025.
The introduction:
Alison Gopnik is both a psychologist and philosopher at Berkeley, studying how children construct theories of the world from limited data. Her central insight is that babies learn like scientists, running experiments and updating beliefs based on evidence. But Tyler wonders: are scientists actually good learners? It’s a question that leads them into a wide-ranging conversation about what we’ve been systematically underestimating in young minds, what’s wrong with simple nature-versus-nurture frameworks, and whether AI represents genuine intelligence or just a very sophisticated library.
Tyler and Alison cover how children systematically experiment on the world and what study she’d run with $100 million, why babies are more conscious than adults and what consciousness even means, episodic memory and aphantasia, whether Freud got anything right about childhood and what’s held up best from Piaget, how we should teach young children versus school-age kids, how AI should change K-12 education and Gopnik’s case that it’s a cultural technology rather than intelligence, whether the enterprise of twin studies makes sense and why she sees nature versus nurture as the wrong framework entirely, autism and ADHD as diagnostic categories, whether the success of her siblings belies her skepticism about genetic inheritance, her new project on the economics and philosophy of caregiving, and more.
Kids as Scientists:
We have some good computational models of how scientific theory change works. It turns out that those apply to children as well. The specific thing that I’ve looked at is, what is it that scientists do? Here’s this big, hard problem. All we seem to get from the world are a bunch of photons at the back of our retina and disturbances of air in our ears, and yet, children know about people and things, and scientists know about quarks and quantum phenomena. How do we ever get from the data to the theory?
One subcategory of that is, how do we ever get causal structure which is so important in science? How do we ever figure out what causes what just from a bunch of data that we have?
What’s happened is that philosophers of science and computer scientists have found some systematic ways that you could talk about that. Scientists — I think, mostly, not necessarily consciously, but just as part of what they do — and little kids are looking at data and systematically figuring out what kind of structure out there in the world could have caused this pattern of data. That’s not the only thing, of course, that’s going on in science. There’re lots of other things, too, but it’s at least one central thing going on in science that we’ve started to really understand. [...]
If you asked a three-year-old, “Do you think that this pattern of conditional dependencies is giving you a confounding causal structure?” They would probably not give you a very sensible answer. Even when you ask scientists that, they don’t give you a very sensible answer. But when you look at their actual practice, what you see is that, in fact, kids, for example, are Bayesian, and so are scientists.
Now, the thing is that, in fact, in many respects, kids are better Bayesians than scientists, but a lot of it depends on your prior. If you have, as they say, a very peaked prior, you have a lot of experience, you have a lot of reason to believe that this prior assumption is right, then it’s rational not to change it when you just have a little bit of evidence. You should require a lot of evidence to overturn something that you have a lot of confirmation for.
It’s interesting that the kids, actually, are better at solving problems that involve unusual outcomes than the scientists are. I think what happens in science — we’ve just been doing some work about this — is that there’s also a social factor, where having a big distribution of people who are more likely to go with the prior versus people who are more likely to go with the evidence, which seems to be true in science, that collectively can get you to the right answer. There’s no arbitrary principle you can have about when should you abandon the theory and when should you hold onto it. [...]
One thing you can do, which is like what you’re describing about the money supply, is just make little changes to what you already know. That’s what you mean about moving in the predictable direction. You’re just changing things a little bit. Then seeing, “Okay, if I change it a little bit, is it doing a better job of accounting for the data?” That’s what people think of as a low-temperature search. The other kind of search you can do, the high-temperature search, is just bounce around the space. Try wild, crazy things. Exactly as you were saying, have just a more random walk.
The strategy that you see in computer science, this annealing, is start out with this wild, crazy, out-of-the-box, high-temperature search through the space, and then cool off and just fill in the details. If you think about your four-year-old, who do they sound like? Do they sound like the creature that’s just moving a little bit, or do they sound like they’re noisy and bouncy and random and doing all sorts of weird things? The four-year-old seemed to be a really good idea of this kind of random search. [...]
I think you see both things happening. When you get big paradigm shifts, as Kuhn said, when you get big changes in science, a lot of times it’s because someone found an idea that looked like it was improbable. The nice thing about kids is, because they don’t have to worry about grant proposals, they can be off in the wild space all the time.
[...]With scientists, we underestimate how much that — we sometimes dismissively call it a fishing expedition — how much that very general experimentation is playing a role in scientific progress. In the grant, you’re supposed to say, “Here’s my three hypotheses, and here are the four experiments I’m going to do to test them.” But I think in practice, a lot of times, scientists are being like the little boy with the avocado and the spoon. They’re saying, “I don’t know, what will happen if I try this? What will happen if I try that?” Then they write the grant to get money to do the things that they’ve already done by doing all these experiments.
FWIW, I've known about simulated annealing for years, a couple of decades at least. For awhile I was one of my go-to metaphors/analogies, though I've not used it recently. In terms that I've been developing in other posts and in some working papers, high-temperature search is ludic (Homo Ludens) while low-temperature filling-in-the details is economic (Home Economicus).
LLMs tend to be used in economic ways. All those benchmarks are based on specific problems in well-specified domains. That's why they aren't particularly creative. My series of blog posts on humans in the loop contains case studies of three of my own ludic explorations.