Monday, June 24, 2024

Neil deGrasse Tyson has an interesting thought experiment about probability & providence

Over the years I've watched a good number of YouTube clips in which Neil deGrasse Tyson talks about this that and the other. I've developed a great deal of respect for him. This is a promotional video for a book, Letters from an Astrophysicist (2019).

Here's a blub that accompanies the video:

Neil deGrasse Tyson joined us to answer our biggest questions on climate change, God, AI and more. [...]

Neil deGrasse Tyson is arguably the most influential, acclaimed scientist on the planet. As director of the Hayden Planetarium, and host of Cosmos and StarTalk, he has dedicated his life to exploring and explaining the mysteries of the universe.

Every year, he receives thousands of letters – from students to prisoners, scientists to priests. Some seek advice, others yearn for inspiration; some are full of despair, others burst with wonder. But they are all searching for understanding, meaning and truth.

His replies are by turns wise, funny, and mind-blowing. In this, his most personal book by far, he covers everything from God to the history of science, from aliens to death. He bares his soul – his passions, his doubts, his hopes. The big theme is everywhere in these pages: what is our place in the universe?

The result is an awe-inspiring read and an intimate portal into an incredible mind, which reveals the power of the universe to start conversations and inspire curiosity in all of us.

OK. All of that and a bag of chips.

Was the moon landing faked? He gets this question a lot, and I've heard a half-dozen replies. His reply here: When you consider that would have to have been done to fake the landing – after all, we actually saw the rockets launched, etc. – actually going to the moon would have been easier that all that fakery.

At about 05:56 he talks about people who see evidence of providence acting in their lives. That's where he gets very clever. He asks us to perform a thought experiment. Get 1000 people, give each a fair coin, and ask them to flip it. Half of them will get tails. Dismiss them, leaving 500 people. Repeat the process until there is only one person left standing. That person will have gotten heads 10 times in a row. Providence, or statistics? As people watched their neighbors flip tails and be dismissed, what would they have been thinking?

He goes on to tell us that he's not worried about AI. This was before ChatGPT, but I don't think he's changed his mind.

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