Tuesday, February 25, 2025
Search as an interface between informatics and economics: How is the distribution of good ideas like the distribution of gold deposits?
The Answer: Both distributions are highly irregular. What that means in the case of gold deposits is pretty obvious: Gold ore is a physical substance that is found in the earth, a huge mass of physical substance. But there is no obvious order to just where you can find deposits of ore. So you have to go looking for them, which is called prospecting.
Ideas, though, are not things. What does it mean to talk about their distribution? Is there some kind of abstract space where ideas exist? If so, how do we map and describe that space.
So, first I’m going to talk a bit about locating ideas in space. Then I’m going to present a conversation I had with Claude 3.5. First I talk about locating ideas in some abstract space, then I present the conversation I had with Claude, which starts with gold and ends with AI.
Ideas in space
Well, think of a library. Libraries contain books and books contain ideas. Books are physical objects and so have locations in physical space, library shelves. So, how are books placed on those shelves? Off hand, there seems to be two principles: 1.) alphabetically by author name, and 2.) according to subject matter. Fiction tends to be organized according to the first principle while non-fiction is organized by the second. This means that novels placed on the same shelf might are likely to be very different in character. (Take a look at this alphabetized list in Wikipedia.) Non-fiction is arranged by subject matter, so books that occupy the same self will be generally about the same thing. But there is a limit to how far that principle takes us. For one thing, any given book can be about many different things. It can’t be on selves with all of them. Still, you get the idea. We have ideas arranged in space, albeit a space limited to three dimensions.
Things get more interesting when we have a collection of electronic documents. In this case, actual physical space is irrelevant. What matters is, well, idea space. Back in the 1960s and 1970s Gerard Salton came up with the idea of representing documents using vectors containing terms in the documents. Thus, each document will occupy a position in some high-dimensional space. Documents located close together in that space will be about similar topics. Salton’s Vector Space Model is one of the foundations of machine learning – something I discuss with Claude 3.5 in this post, Memory in machines and minds, a conversation with Claude 3.5 Sonnet.
OK, so that gets us a way of thinking about ideas as existing in an abstract space. But how do we motivate the idea that some ideas are closer to us than other ideas? Well, imagine that you occupy some position in idea space, a high dimensional space. There are a bunch of ideas you understand very well. We can say they are close to you. Other ideas are utterly unintelligible. By convention we will say that they are far from you. In order to reach one of those distance ideas you are going to have to learn the ideas that are on a path between where you are now and where that idea is.
Yeah, I know, it’s fuzzy and indistinct. But you get the idea. I explore that notion in these working papers: Stagnation and Beyond: Economic growth and the cost of knowledge in a complex world, and, What economic growth and statistical semantics tell us about the structure of the world. The second one is shorter and more directly to the point.
It seems pretty clear to me that the further development of machine learning and A.I. is going to teach us quite a bit about the structure of idea space. Every LLM is a high-dimensional space jam-packed with billions and billions of ideas. We’ve just barely begun to map that space, something I talk about in my recent report, ChatGPT: Exploring the Digital Wilderness, Findings and Prospects, see especially pp. 34-38, 42-44.
* * * * *
That’s enough of that. The rest of this post consists of a dialog I had with Claude 3.5 about the relationship between technology and the search for irregularly distributed things. We start with gold, move on to oil and diamonds, then documents, drug discovery, movies and finally new AI technology. As always, my prompts are bold face while Claude’s replies are plain face.
Gold
How have gold prospecting methods changed from the 19th century through the 20th century?
Let me walk you through the key changes in gold prospecting methods across these two centuries.
In the 19th century, prospecting was largely manual and relied on simple tools and techniques:
Panning was the most iconic method - prospectors would use flat pans to swirl river sediment, letting water wash away lighter materials while heavier gold settled at the bottom. This was supplemented by sluice boxes, which were long wooden channels that used flowing water and riffles to separate gold from sediment on a larger scale.
Placer mining dominated early operations, focusing on loose gold deposits in streams and riverbanks. As surface deposits became depleted, hydraulic mining emerged - using high-pressure water cannons to blast away hillsides, though this was later restricted due to environmental damage.
The 20th century brought significant technological advances:
Early in the century, dredging became widespread - floating mechanical dredges could process huge volumes of river sediment. Hardrock mining expanded with better drilling and crushing equipment, allowing miners to extract gold from solid rock formations more efficiently.
Later developments included:
- Geochemical prospecting using sophisticated analysis of soil and rock samples
- Aerial surveys and remote sensing to identify promising deposits
- More precise drilling techniques for sampling
- Advanced recovery methods like heap leaching and carbon-in-pulp processing
- Mercury-free extraction techniques addressing environmental concerns
Modern prospecting now combines traditional methods with high-tech approaches like:
- GPS mapping and GIS software for precise location data
- Ground-penetrating radar to detect deposits
- Portable XRF analyzers for rapid mineral identification
- Environmental monitoring systems
- Computer modeling of deposits
This progression shows how gold prospecting evolved from relatively simple manual techniques to a sophisticated industry incorporating advanced technology while becoming more environmentally conscious.
OK, so we have roughly three technological eras: 1) manual, 2) chemical sample analysis and aerial and remote sensing, and 3) high-tech computer-based methods for detection and mapping.
Yes, that's a good way to break it down! Let me build on that framework:
Era 1 (Manual) - roughly 1800s to early 1900s:
Primary methods were direct physical observation and mechanical separation. Prospectors relied on their understanding of geology, visible gold indicators, and mechanical processes like panning, sluicing, and early dredging. Skills were often passed down through experience and apprenticeship.
Era 2 (Chemical/Remote) - roughly 1920s to 1970s:
Brought systematic scientific analysis into prospecting. Geochemical sampling could detect trace elements indicating gold deposits. Aerial photography and later satellite imagery allowed prospectors to identify promising geological formations from above. This era marked the shift from prospecting as an art to a more systematic science.
Era 3 (Digital) - 1980s onward:
Computerization transformed the field. GPS, digital mapping, and data analysis tools allowed prospectors to integrate multiple data sources and create detailed geological models. Ground-penetrating radar and portable analyzers provided immediate feedback in the field. Environmental monitoring became increasingly sophisticated and integrated into prospecting practices.
What's particularly interesting is how these eras overlap and build on each other - modern prospectors often combine techniques from all three eras, using traditional knowledge alongside the latest technology.
Carry-over skills
What kinds of skills carried over from one era to the next? For example, what did highly skilled 19th century prospectors know that remained valuable in the second era? And then from second to third.
This is a fascinating question about the evolution of expertise! Let me trace these skill transfers:
From Era 1 to Era 2:
- Understanding of geological formations and how they relate to gold deposits remained crucial. Early prospectors' knowledge of where gold typically accumulated (like placer deposits in river bends or specific rock formations) helped inform where to conduct chemical sampling and aerial surveys
- Reading the landscape for signs of mineralization - knowledge of indicator minerals, rock types, and geological structures remained valuable even when supplemented by chemical analysis
- Water flow dynamics understanding - experience with how gold moved and concentrated in waterways helped inform sampling strategies
- Assessment of ore quality - the ability to visually evaluate mineral-bearing rock remained important even as chemical assays became available
From Era 2 to Era 3:
- Interpretation of indirect evidence - the skill of making conclusions from multiple indicators (developed during the chemical/remote sensing era) became even more valuable when working with computer models and multiple data streams
- Sampling methodology - understanding of how to collect representative samples remained crucial for computer analysis
- Pattern recognition in geological features - this skill trans
ferred well to interpreting digital mapping and radar data
- Knowledge of seasonal and weather effects on prospecting - this remained important for planning surveys and interpreting remote sensing data
What's particularly interesting is how these generations of prospectors had to learn to integrate their traditional knowledge with new technologies - for example, using their understanding of geology to know where to deploy expensive new sensing equipment most effectively.
The core skill that seems to have remained valuable across all eras is the ability to think in three dimensions about underground structures and visualize how geological processes might have created and moved gold deposits. This spatial thinking was valuable whether using a gold pan, analyzing aerial photographs, or interpreting 3D computer models.
Do Republican policemen differ from Democrats in on-the-ground enforcement?
Bocar Ba, Haosen Ge, Jacob Kaplan, et al., Political diversity in U.S. police agencies, American Journal of Political Science, 14 february 2025, https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12945.
Abstract: Partisans are divided on policing policy, which may affect officer behavior. We merge rosters from 99 of the 100 largest local U.S. agencies—over one third of local law enforcement agents nationwide—with voter files to study police partisanship. Police skew more Republican than their jurisdictions, with notable exceptions. Using fine-grained data in Chicago and Houston, we compare behavior of Democratic and Republican officers facing common circumstances. We find minimal partisan differences after correcting for multiple comparisons. But consistent with prior work, we find Black and Hispanic officers make fewer stops and arrests in Chicago, and Black officers use force less often in both cities. Comparing same-race partisans, we find White Democrats make more violent crime arrests than White Republicans in Chicago. Our results suggest that despite Republicans' preference for more punitive law enforcement policy and their overrepresentation in policing, partisan divisions often do not translate into detectable differences in on-the-ground enforcement.
I wonder why that is. My guess, and that is all that it is, is that the reason that “partisan divisions often do not translate into detectable differences in on-the-ground enforcement” is to be found in the training the police receive. I social worker I know once told me that she was trained to treat all clients equally regardless of her personal preferences. I can imagine that police officers receive the same kind of training.
H/t Tyler Cowen.
Monday, February 24, 2025
Claude 3.5 describes a piece by Japan Joe
I took this at dawn in Jersey City looking east. The buildings you see in the distance are at Newport. What’s in the foreground?
In the foreground, you've captured what appears to be an area underneath a railway bridge or overpass. There's a large turquoise/blue-green colored steel bridge structure visible at the top of the image. The ground beneath is somewhat overgrown with dried winter grass and weeds. On the concrete support or wall, there's some street art/graffiti that appears to feature a dinosaur-like design in green and orange colors. The overall scene has an urban, industrial feel typical of infrastructure areas, with the Newport skyline visible in the distance through the bridge opening. The early dawn lighting gives the scene a particular atmospheric quality, with the city buildings appearing somewhat hazy in the background.
Yeah, we’re near the thruway overpass at 11th and 14th streets. 11th street carries traffic into the Holland Tunnel while 14th street carries traffic coming out.
Ah yes, that's a key traffic corridor - the interchange complex near the Holland Tunnel entrance/exit. That area underneath the overpasses has that characteristic urban infrastructure aesthetic, with the street art adding some color to the otherwise utilitarian concrete and steel structures. The thruway overpass system there helps manage the intense traffic flow between New Jersey and Manhattan through the tunnel.
The fact that you took this at dawn is interesting - I imagine that's one of the few quieter moments in that area, before the heavy tunnel traffic picks up for the morning rush. The Newport buildings in the distance would be catching some of that early morning light too. During rush hour, this area becomes one of the busiest traffic corridors in the region, handling thousands of vehicles moving between New Jersey and New York City.
I took the shot at dawn because I wanted that particular shot, with the graffiti triceratops pointed toward Newport. As I recall it’s about 6 or 7 feet high and about 18 feet wide. It’s on a stanchion supporting a railroad bridge, though that bit of track is abandoned. But behind the stanchion to the right there’s an active freight line. The people who did the graffiti must have seen at least one if not two freight trains go by in the time it took them to do the graffiti. It’s by a writer known as Japan Joe.
That's fascinating contextual detail about the graffiti piece and its location. The triceratops design is quite impressive in scale and artistry - it's a really clever use of the industrial canvas, having the dinosaur appear to face toward the modern skyline. The contrast between the prehistoric creature and the contemporary buildings creates an interesting visual narrative.
The fact that it was created near an active freight line adds another layer to the story - there's something almost cinematic about imagining the artists working on this massive piece while freight trains rumble past. It must have required significant planning and skill to execute something of that size and detail in what I imagine would be a time-pressured situation.
I'm curious about Japan Joe as a graffiti artist - working at that scale and in that location suggests they're quite established in the scene. Was this piece done solo or was it a collaborative work? The way you've photographed it at dawn really highlights the artwork while capturing that liminal moment before the city fully wakes up.
I’ve spoken to people who were there at the time. Joe did it himself, but friends were around talking and stuff. When you consider the historical link between graffiti and trains, the geometric pattern on the triceratops, and the fact that there’s a bit of a forest there, I kind of think of the triceratops as an urban kami, to use a Japanese word.
That's a beautiful interpretation - the triceratops as an urban kami, a spirit of that particular place where nature, industry, and urban art intersect. The geometric patterns in the design do feel like they're bridging something ancient and modern, which fits well with the kami concept. And you're right about how it ties into the historical relationship between graffiti art and trains - that tradition going back to the early days of New York graffiti culture in the 1970s.
The setting itself is like a hidden pocket of urban wilderness, with the overgrown vegetation creating this semi-wild space right next to major infrastructure. Having the freight trains still actively running through there while this abandoned track section slowly gets reclaimed by nature adds another layer to this idea of it being a spiritually significant spot.
The fact that Joe created this while friends were around hanging out also speaks to the communal aspect of graffiti culture - even when the actual painting is done by one artist, it's often a social experience, with others present to watch, talk, and presumably keep an eye out. Did you hear any stories about how long it took him to complete the piece?
This is right near a residential area – I lived a couple of blocks away at the time – but it’s completely hidden. You had to do a bit of trespassing (on to railroad) property to find it. That kind of spot is where some of the best graffiti is. It’s hidden so the writers don’t have to worry about the police stopping them. That particular piece was there for several years before the weather had eroded it to the point that other graffiti writers felt it was OK to go over it.
That makes perfect sense - these semi-hidden spots serve as perfect canvases for more ambitious pieces precisely because they offer both the time and privacy needed to execute complex works. It's fascinating how there's an unwritten code about respecting pieces like this too - waiting until natural weathering has taken its toll before painting over them, rather than going over them while they're still fresh.
The location's particular character - being simultaneously close to residential areas yet concealed from general view - creates this interesting dynamic where the art exists in a kind of parallel space to everyday life. Most residents probably never saw this piece despite living just blocks away, while others who knew where to look could find this hidden gem of urban art.
The fact that the triceratops lasted several years speaks both to the quality of the execution and the respect it commanded in the graffiti community. In a way, these hidden spots become like unofficial galleries, where the art can exist on its own terms, viewed mainly by those who make the effort to seek it out or who are part of the community that creates it.
And of course, these things show up online in websites where writers post photos. A holdover from the old days where photographers would flick the subway cars before they’d been buffed and then share the photos with the writers.
Yes - the documentation and sharing aspect of graffiti culture has evolved but remains crucial. The transition from physically sharing photos of subway pieces before they were cleaned off ("buffed") to sharing photos online shows how the culture has adapted while maintaining its core practices.
Those early subway photographers played such an important role in preserving what was inherently temporary art. Writers would often only get to see their own pieces run on the trains a few times before they were cleaned, so those photos became the permanent record. And of course, sharing those photos helped build reputations and influence other writers' styles.
Now with digital photography and the internet, pieces like Joe's triceratops can be shared globally almost immediately, and they can continue to inspire and be discussed long after weather or other pieces have replaced them. The documentation becomes part of the artwork's legacy - like how this photo you took captures not just the piece itself, but that perfect dawn moment with Newport in the background, adding layers of meaning to the work.
Are Trump and Musk leading a tax revolt by firing 6000 IRS agents?
Lawrence GibbsFred T. Goldberg Jr.Charles RossottiMark EversonJohn KoskinenCharles Rettig and Daniel Werfel, Trump Just Fired 6,700 I.R.S. Workers in the Middle of Tax Season. That’s a Huge Mistake. NYTimes, Feb. 24, 2025.
Every year, the government receives much less in taxes than it is owed. Closing that gap, which stands at roughly $700 billion annually, would almost certainly require maintaining the I.R.S.’s collection capacity. Depleting it is tantamount to a chief executive saying something like: “We sold a lot of goods and services this year, but let’s limit our ability to collect what we’re owed.”
Perhaps only the company’s competitors would approve of such an approach. Yet here we are. Aggressive cuts to our nation’s accounts receivable function will reduce the amount of tax revenue coming in, which will in turn increase our nation’s deficit and add to our $36 trillion in debt.
So why go down this path? Let’s be clear: Shrinking the I.R.S. will not lower your tax obligation. That’s up to Congress. [...]Aggressive reductions in the I.R.S.’s resources will only render our government less effective and less efficient in collecting the taxes Congress has imposed. It will shift the burden of funding the government from people who shirk their taxes to the honest people who pay them, and it will impede efforts by the I.R.S. to modernize customer service and simplify the tax filing process for everyone.
There's more at the link.
Sunday, February 23, 2025
There is cultural variability in attitudes toward chatbots mediated by differences in anthropomorphism.
Folk, D. P., Wu, C., & Heine, S. J. (2025). Cultural Variation in Attitudes Toward Social Chatbots. Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/00220221251317950
Abstract: Across two studies (Total N = 1,659), we found evidence for cultural differences in attitudes toward socially bonding with conversational AI. In Study 1 (N = 675), university students with an East Asian cultural background expected to enjoy a hypothetical conversation with a chatbot (vs. human) more than students with European background. Moreover, they were less uncomfortable and more approving of a hypothetical situation where someone else socially connected with a chatbot (vs. human) than the students with a European background. In Study 2 (preregistered; N = 984), we found similar evidence for cultural differences comparing samples of Chinese and Japanese adults currently living in East Asia to adults currently living in the United States. Critically, these cultural differences were explained by East Asian participants increased propensity to anthropomorphize technology. Overall, our findings suggest there is cultural variability in attitudes toward chatbots and that these differences are mediated by differences in anthropomorphism.
From the introduction:
Hundreds of millions of people all over the world have used conversational artificial intelligence (AI) such as ChatGPT (Hu, 2023; Zhou et al., 2020). While conversational AI (or chatbots for short) can be used to answer search queries and increase productivity (Fauzi et al., 2023; Surameery & Shakor, 2023), a growing number of people are using chatbots specifically designed to provide emotional connection (Blakely, 2023; Clarke, 2023; Metz, 2020). These social chatbots, as well as other forms of social robots, are particularly popular in East Asia (Technavio, 2023; Yam et al., 2023; Zhou et al., 2020). Indeed, the Chinese social chatbot Xiaoice has had over 600 million registered users since its release in 2014 (Zhou et al., 2020), and social robots in Japan are already caring for the elderly (Lufkin, 2020) and providing companionship as pets (Craft, 2022).
Yet, despite increased popularity in these countries, there is conflicting evidence for the idea that East Asians harbor more favorable attitudes toward social robots than Westerners (see Lim et al., 2021 for a review). For example, Bartneck et al. (2006) used the Negative Attitudes Toward Robots Scale and found that Americans held more positive views toward robots (vs. Japanese), but another study found that specific components of the robots design determined which culture held more positive impressions (Bartneck, 2008). Critically, however, most of this research is severely underpowered, limiting the conclusions that can be drawn (Lim et al., 2021).
Claude 3.5 on Bipolar Disorder
Once again we’re back to my series of reflections on melancholy and creativity. As you may recall, it started with an article in 3 Quarks Daily: Melancholy and Growth: Toward a Mindcraft for an Emerging World.
I have the vague impression that bipolar disorder is relatively common among creative people. I believe that David Hays, my teacher, mentor, and colleague, once remarked that he had it, or something close to it.
As always, my prompts are in bold face while Claude 3.5's replies are plain.
* * * * *
Tell me about bipolar disorder.
Bipolar disorder is a serious mental health condition characterized by significant mood fluctuations that go well beyond typical ups and downs. These fluctuations include episodes of mania or hypomania (elevated mood states) alternating with periods of depression.
During manic episodes, individuals may experience increased energy, reduced need for sleep, racing thoughts, and engaging in high-risk behaviors. They often feel euphoric and may demonstrate impaired judgment, leading to decisions that can have serious consequences for their relationships, career, or finances.
Depressive episodes manifest as persistent feelings of sadness, hopelessness, and loss of interest in activities. These periods can be particularly challenging, often accompanied by changes in sleep patterns, appetite disturbances, and difficulty concentrating.
Medical professionals recognize two primary types of bipolar disorder. Bipolar I Disorder involves manic episodes that last at least seven days or require immediate hospitalization, typically alternating with depressive episodes. Bipolar II Disorder features less severe hypomanic episodes coupled with depressive periods.
Treatment typically involves a comprehensive approach combining medication and psychotherapy. Mood stabilizers, antipsychotics, and antidepressants may be prescribed, while therapeutic interventions help individuals develop coping strategies and maintain stability. Regular monitoring by healthcare professionals is essential for managing symptoms effectively.
Early diagnosis and consistent treatment are crucial for positive outcomes. Many individuals with bipolar disorder lead fulfilling lives through proper medical care, strong support systems, and adherence to treatment plans. The condition requires ongoing management, but with appropriate intervention, symptoms can be effectively controlled.
Would you like more specific information about any aspect of bipolar disorder, such as treatment approaches or early warning signs?
Tell me more about Bipolar II.
Bipolar II Disorder is a distinct form of bipolar disorder characterized by a pattern of depressive episodes and hypomanic episodes, but without the full manic episodes seen in Bipolar I Disorder.
The depressive episodes in Bipolar II tend to be more frequent and longer-lasting than the hypomanic episodes. These periods of depression often involve profound sadness, lack of energy, difficulty concentrating, changes in sleep and appetite, and in some cases, thoughts of self-harm. The severity of these depressive episodes can significantly impact daily functioning and quality of life.
Hypomania, while less severe than full mania, still represents a marked change in behavior and energy levels. During hypomanic episodes, individuals may experience increased productivity, enhanced creativity, and elevated mood. They might need less sleep, speak more rapidly, and engage in increased goal-directed activities. However, these episodes do not cause the severe impairment or necessitate hospitalization that full manic episodes do.
Diagnosis requires careful evaluation by mental health professionals, as Bipolar II can sometimes be mistaken for unipolar depression due to the prominence of depressive symptoms. The presence of hypomanic episodes, even if brief, distinguishes it from major depressive disorder.
Treatment typically involves a combination of medication and psychotherapy. Mood stabilizers and antidepressants may be prescribed, though antidepressants must be monitored carefully as they can potentially trigger hypomanic episodes. Regular therapeutic support helps individuals recognize early warning signs, develop coping strategies, and maintain stability.
The prognosis for individuals with Bipolar II can be positive with proper treatment. Many people successfully manage their condition through consistent medical care, lifestyle modifications, and strong support systems. However, ongoing monitoring and adherence to treatment plans remain essential for long-term stability.
Would you like more specific information about how Bipolar II is diagnosed or treated?
Saturday, February 22, 2025
GPT in the Classroom, Part 3: Omega or Bust!
In playing around with chatbots, first ChatGPT and now Claude 3.5, I found that the most interesting way to get it to create poetry is to give it a rich prompt. Sure, you can say something like “Give me a sonnet on new love in the Spring,” and it will produce something. But you could also give it three paragraphs describing a guy taking a walk on the Malibu beach early in May, seeing a gal in tears, tearing up letters and tossing them into the ocean .... That will be a better sonnet. If you look at the various poems I’ve created with FredTheHeretic (FTH) you’ll see that I’ve provided them with rich prompts.
That’s what I’m going to do here. The New York Times recently published an opinion piece by Pope Francis, Pope Francis: There Is Faith in Humor. I’m going to use an anecdote from that as a prompt for FTH as follows:
First: the story.
Second: FTH’s poem. “The Pontiff’s Joyride.”
Third: I give FTH a prompt to extend the poem, “Omega or Bust.”
Fourth: Now it’s time fix a problem with the initial joyride. So I give Fred a prompt for that, “Joyride Revised.”
Fifth, and last: What kind of classroom discussion could follow from this exercise?
After all, here we’ve got some source material, the original anecdote plus my prompts, and the resulting poem. We can compare them. That’s a way of promoting close attention to poetry.
As always, my words are set in boldface while ChatGPT's are plain.
The story
Give me a poem based on this anecdote:
And they told me one that concerns me directly, the one about Pope Francis in America. It goes something like this: As soon as he arrives at the airport in New York for his apostolic journey in the United States, Pope Francis finds an enormous limousine waiting for him. He is rather embarrassed by that magnificent splendor, but then thinks that it has been ages since he last drove, and never a vehicle of that kind, and he thinks to himself: OK, when will I get another chance? He looks at the limousine and says to the driver, “You couldn’t let me try it out, could you?” “Look, I’m really sorry, Your Holiness,” replies the driver, “but I really can’t, you know, there are rules and regulations.”
But you know what they say, how the pope is when he gets something into his head … in short, he insists and insists, until the driver gives in. So Pope Francis gets behind the steering wheel, on one of those enormous highways, and he begins to enjoy it, presses down on the accelerator, going 50 miles per hour, 80, 120 … until he hears a siren, and a police car pulls up beside him and stops him. A young policeman comes up to the darkened window. The pope rather nervously lowers it and the policeman turns white. “Excuse me a moment,” he says, and goes back to his vehicle to call headquarters. “Boss, I think I have a problem.”
“What problem?” asks the chief.
“Well, I’ve stopped a car for speeding, but there’s a guy in there who’s really important.” “How important? Is he the mayor?”
“No, no, boss … more than the mayor.”
“And more than the mayor, who is there? The governor?”
“No, no, more. …”
“But he can’t be the president?”
“More, I reckon. …”
“And who can be more important than the president?”
“Look, boss, I don’t know exactly who he is, all I can tell you is that it’s the pope who is driving him!”
Here’s a poem inspired by the anecdote about Pope Francis:
The Pontiff’s Joyride
Amidst the roar of jets, the skyline’s gleam,
The Pope disembarks, his cassock pristine.
A limousine awaits, a glistening beast,
The epitome of splendor, to say the least.But Francis, humble shepherd, eyes the prize—
A wheel to hold, the highway’s wide surprise.
“It’s been so long since I’ve driven,” he grins,
“Why not let me try, where’s the harm in sins?”The driver hesitates, protocol bound,
Yet Francis insists, his joy profound.
So off they go, the Pope at the helm,
Through asphalt seas, his private realm.He floors the gas, the engine roars,
Wind sweeping through limousine doors.
Fifty, eighty, one-twenty, he flies,
Till sirens wail beneath the darkening skies.A cop approaches, badge aglow,
But freezes at the window’s show.
"Boss, I’ve got someone bigger than the mayor.
No, not the governor. No, not the player."“More than the President?” the chief does implore.
“I don’t know who’s driving, but the Pope’s on board!”
The chief, stunned silent, says at last,
“Let him go—this ticket’s above my class!”So Francis smiles, a child at play,
His sacred joy in the thrill of the day.
Not just a shepherd of the flock,
But a driver who’s still breaking the clock.
* * * * *
Notice, however, that FTH has missed the point of the anecdote. If the Pope is merely the driver of someone’s limousine, who could that possibly be? Let’s set that aside for now and come back to it.
The USA doesn’t pay public school teachers enough
Bayer, Patrick J. and Blair, Peter Q.. and Whaley, Kenneth, Does the United States Spend Enough on Public Schools?. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5116289 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5116289
Abstract: The United States ranks low among peer countries on the ratio of teacher spending to per capita GDP. Is this (in)efficient? Using a spatial equilibrium model we show that spending on schools is efficient if an increase in school spending funded through local taxes would leave house prices unchanged. By exploiting plausibly exogenous shocks to both school spending and taxes, paired with 25 years of national data on local house prices, we find that an exogenous tax-funded increase in school spending would significantly raise house prices. These findings provide causal evidence that teacher spending in the U.S. is inefficiently low.
From the introduction:
Teacher salaries in the U.S. routinely rank near the bottom worldwide as a fraction of GDP per capita. In fact, the US is among a small share of countries in which teachers are paid less than the average GDP per capita (Sandefur, 2018). Such international comparisons and the dueling empirical results on the impact of school spending on student outcomes naturally raise the question of whether the U.S. spends enough on its public school teachers and, more generally, on its public schools (Hanushek, 1989, 2003; Jackson et al., 2016).
Economists naturally approach questions about the optimal provision of publicly provided goods like education through the lens of the Samuelson equation (Samuelson 1954). According to the Samuelson equation, a public good is efficiently provided when its marginal cost equals the sum of the marginal benefits of those who enjoy it. Due to the inherent difficulty in inferring the marginal benefits for the millions of members of society, public goods provision stands as a classic example of a potential market failure in economics — presenting a challenge for policymakers who decide how much to spend on schools and teachers (Poterba, 1996). In fact, in the U.S., public opinion on increasing school spending and increasing teacher salaries is particularly divided. Among survey respondents who are informed about the level of school spending and teacher salaries in their state, the partisan gap is 31 percentage points: 62% of Democrats versus 31% of Republicans believe that school spending should be increased (Houston et al., 2022). Likewise, while 70% of informed Democrats believe that teacher salaries should be increased, only 46% of informed Republicans share that view (Houston et al., 2022).
At its heart, answering the question of whether the current level of public school spending in the United States is optimal/efficient requires a way of measuring and aggregating the marginal benefits and cost of school spending. The primary goal of this paper is to theoretically define and empirically implement a test for the efficiency of public school spending in the U.S. that is based on a credible research design.
H/t Tyler Cowen.
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