It's the economy stupid

From Jed Kolko, FiveThirtyEight:

Donald Trump performed best on Tuesday in places where the economy is in worse shape, and especially in places where jobs are most at risk in the future.

Trump, who in his campaign pledged to be a voice for “forgotten Americans,” beat Hillary Clinton in counties with slower job growth and lower wages. And he far outperformed her in counties where more jobs are threatened by automation or offshoring, a sign that he found support not just among workers who are struggling now but among those concerned for their economic future.

In the months leading up to Tuesday’s vote, experts debated how much Trump’s support was driven by economic anxiety or by racism, xenophobia or other factors. These reasons are not mutually exclusive, of course, and the debate will continue long into Trump’s presidency. But county-level voting results suggest that economic issues underpinned at least some of Trump’s support. [...]

Economic anxiety is about the future, not just the present. Trump beat Clinton in counties where more jobs are at risk because of technology or globalization. Specifically, counties with the most “routine” jobs — those in manufacturing, sales, clerical work and related occupations that are easier to automate or send offshore — were far more likely to vote for Trump.

H/t mclaren in a comment at Crooked Timber.