Rodney Brooks has published his most recent set of tech predictions: Predictions Scorecard, 2024 January 01.
He's got predictions and commentary for Self-Driving Cars, (humanoid) Robots, Artificial Intelligence and Machine learning, Human Spaceflight, and comments on electric cars, flying cars, and hyperloop.
On predicting developments in AI:
I had predicted that the “next big thing” in AI, beyond deep learning, would show up no earlier than 2023, but certainly by 2027. I also said in the table of predictions in my January 1st, 2018, that for sure someone was already working on that next big thing, and that papers were most likely already published about it. I just didn’t know what it would be; but I was quite sure that of the hundreds or thousands of AI projects that groups of people were already successfully working hard on, one would turn out to be that next big thing that everyone hopes is just around the corner. I was right about both 2023 being when it might show up, and that there were already papers about it before 2018.
Why was I successful in those predictions? Because it always happens that way and I just found the common thread in all “next big things” in AI, and their time constants.
The next big thing, Generative AI and Large Language Models started to enter the general AI consciousness last December, and indeed I talked about it a little in last year’s prediction update. I said that it was neither the savior nor the destroyer of mankind, as different camps had started to proclaim right at the end of 2022, and that both sides should calm down. I also said that perhaps the next big thing would be neuro-symbolic Artificial Intelligence.
By March of 2023, it was clear that the next big thing had arrived in AI, and that it was Large Language Models. The key innovation had been published before 2018, in 2017, in fact.
Vaswani, Ashish; Shazeer, Noam; Parmar, Niki; Uszkoreit, Jakob; Jones, Llion; Gomez, Aidan N; Kaiser, Łukasz; Polosukhin, Illia (2017). “Attention is All you Need”. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems. Curran Associates, Inc. 30.
So I am going to claim victory on that particular prediction, with the bracketed years (OK, so I was a little lucky…) and that a major paper for the next big thing had already been published by the beginning of 2018 (OK, so I was even luckier…).
On generative AI and LLMS he points to a video of a talk he gave at MIT, and a blog post based on that talk, telling us
the talk is about what the existence of these “valuable cultural tools” (due to Alison Gopnik at UC Berkeley) tells us about deeper philosophical questions about how human intelligence works, and how they are following a well worn hype cycle that we have seen again, and again, during the 60+ year history of AI.
I concluded my talk encouraging people to do good things with LLMs but to not believe the conceit that their existence means we are on the verge of Artificial General Intelligence.
By the way, there are the initial signs that perhaps LLMs have already passed peak hype. And the ever interesting Cory Doctorow has written a piece on what will be the remnants after the LLM bubble has burst. He says there was lots of useful stuff left after the dot com bubble burst in 2000, but not much beyond the fraud in the case of the burst crypto bubble.
He tends to be pessimistic about how much will be left to harvest after the LLM bubble is gone. Meanwhile right at year’s end the lawsuits around LLM training are starting to get serious.
The concluding paragraphs of the Doctorow piece:
All the big, exciting uses for AI are either low-dollar (helping kids cheat on their homework, generating stock art for bottom-feeding publications) or high-stakes and fault-intolerant (self-driving cars, radiology, hiring, etc.).
Every bubble pops eventually. When this one goes, what will be left behind?
Well, there will be little models – Hugging Face, Llama, etc – that run on commodity hardware. The people who are learning to “prompt engineer” these “toy models” have gotten far more out of them than even their makers imagined possible. They will continue to eke out new marginal gains from these little models, possibly enough to satisfy most of those low-stakes, low-dollar applications. But these little models were spun out of big models, and without stupid bubble money and/or a viable business case, those big models won’t survive the bubble and be available to make more capable little models.
There are some promising avenues, like “federated learning,” that hypothetically combine a lot of commodity consumer hardware to replicate some of the features of those big, capital-intensive models from the bubble’s beneficiaries. It may be that – as with the interregnum after the dotcom bust – AI practitioners will use their all-expenses-paid education in PyTorch and TensorFlow (AI’s answer to Perl and Python) to push the limits on federated learning and small-scale AI models to new places, driven by playfulness, scientific curiosity, and a desire to solve real problems.
There will also be a lot more people who understand statistical analysis at scale and how to wrangle large amounts of data. There will be a lot of people who know PyTorch and TensorFlow, too – both of these are “open source” projects, but are effectively controlled by Meta and Google, respectively. Perhaps they’ll be wrestled away from their corporate owners, forked and made more broadly applicable, after those corporate behemoths move on from their money-losing Big AI bets.
Our policymakers are putting a lot of energy into thinking about what they’ll do if the AI bubble doesn’t pop – wrangling about “AI ethics” and “AI safety.” But – as with all the previous tech bubbles – very few people are talking about what we’ll be able to salvage when the bubble is over.
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