Beliefs about local impact of climate change affect beliefs about the desirability of geoengineering

Astrid Dannenberg & Sonja Zitzelsberger, Climate experts’ views on geoengineering depend on their beliefs about climate change impacts, Nature Climate Change 9, pages769–775 (2019):

Abstract: Damages due to climate change are expected to increase with global warming, which could be limited directly by solar geoengineering. Here we analyse the views of 723 negotiators and scientists who are involved in international climate policy-making and who will have a considerable influence on whether solar geoengineering will be used to counter climate change. We find that respondents who expect severe global climate change damages and who have little confidence in current mitigation efforts are more opposed to geoengineering than respondents who are less pessimistic about global damages and mitigation efforts. However, we also find that respondents are more supportive of geoengineering when they expect severe climate change damages in their home country than when they have more optimistic expectations for the home country. Thus, when respondents are more personally affected, their views are closer to what rational cost–benefit analyses predict.

H/t Tyler Cowen.