Authoritarian leaders thrive on crisis, no? So why are they so poor at dealing with the current pandemic?

Ivan Krastev, The Pandemic Was Supposed to Be Great for Strongmen. What Happened? NYTimes, Sept. 8, 2020.

Some fear that more than any other crisis, a public health emergency like this one will impel people to accept restrictions on their liberties in the hope of improving personal security. The pandemic has increased tolerance of invasive surveillance and bans on freedom of assembly. In several Western countries — including the United States and Germany — there were public protests against mask mandates and lockdowns.

At the same time, the pandemic has eroded the power of authoritarians and the authoritarian-inclined. The instinctive reaction of leaders like Mr. Lukashenko in Belarus, Vladimir Putin in Russia, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil and Donald Trump in the United States was not to take advantage of the state of emergency to expand their authority — it was to play down the seriousness of the pandemic.

Why are authoritarian leaders who thrive on crises and who are fluent in the politics of fear reluctant to embrace the opportunity? Why do they seem to hate a crisis that they should love? The answer is straightforward: Authoritarians only enjoy those crises they have manufactured themselves. They need enemies to defeat, not problems to solve. The freedom authoritarian leaders cherish most is the freedom to choose which crises merit a response. It is this capacity that allows them to project an image of Godlike power.

In pre-Covid-19 Russia, Mr. Putin could “solve” one crisis by ginning up another. He reversed the decline of his popularity after the protest movement of 2011-12 by dramatically annexing Crimea. Mr. Trump could once claim that migrant caravans from Mexico are the greatest threat his country is facing, and disregard the civilizational threat of climate change. In the age of coronavirus, this is no longer possible.

There is just this one crisis, here and now: the pandemic. And governments are being judged by how they manage it. Authoritarian actors not only loathe crises they have not freely chosen, they also dislike “exceptional situations” that force them to respond with standardized rules and protocols rather than with ad hoc, discretionary moves. Mundane behaviors like physical distancing, self-isolation and handwashing are the best ways to halt the spread of the virus. A leader’s bold stroke of genius will be of no help. Following rules is not the same as obeying orders.

Even more threatening for authoritarian elites in the Covid-19 world is that they lack the key advantage all democratic leaders enjoy: The luxury to survive even when appearing weak. Imagine that Mr. Putin orders all Russian citizens to wear masks and half of the population elect not to. For a democratic leader, this would be an embarrassment; for an authoritarian it is a direct challenge to his power.