A look at A.I. Hype

Julia Angwin, Will A.I. Ever Live Up to Its Hype? NYTimes, May 15, 2024. 

...some of A.I.’s greatest accomplishments seem inflated. Some of you may remember that the A.I. model ChatGPT-4 aced the uniform bar exam a year ago. Turns out that it scored in the 48th percentile, not the 90th, as claimed by OpenAI, according to a re-examination by the M.I.T. researcher Eric Martínez. Or what about Google’s claim that it used A.I. to discover more than two million new chemical compounds? A re-examination by experimental materials chemists at the University of California, Santa Barbara, found “scant evidence for compounds that fulfill the trifecta of novelty, credibility and utility.”

Meanwhile, researchers in many fields have found that A.I. often struggles to answer even simple questions, whether about the law, medicine or voter information. Researchers have even found that A.I. does not always improve the quality of computer programming, the task it is supposed to excel at. [...]

And consider for a moment the possibility that perhaps A.I. isn’t going to get that much better anytime soon. After all, the A.I. companies are running out of new data on which to train their models, and they are running out of energy to fuel their power-hungry A.I. machines. Meanwhile, authors and news organizations (including The New York Times) are contesting the legality of having their data ingested into the A.I. models without their consent, which could end up forcing quality data to be withdrawn from the models.

There's more at the link.