Thursday, February 27, 2025

How many unnecessary deaths will be laid at the feet of DOGE? [The destruction of USAID.]

Ari Daniel, Why Dean Karlan, chief economist of USAID, resigned on Tuesday, NPR, February 26, 2025. From the article:

We're watching psychological warfare against a workforce that has been committed to furthering the lives of other people. This was a career choice they made to help others even if they disagreed about how to improve USAID.

If you want to reform foreign aid, this isn't the way to do it. This approach is going to radically increase the cost of all future foreign aid. That's because if you want to work with anybody in the future and you tell them, "No, no, no, this time we're here. We're not going to fold on you," how are you going to convince them of that? When you can't trust someone, it makes you reluctant to make agreements with them. And that means doing less good with more money to have the same positive impact as we were having before.

There's a lot of good that USAID has done across the board in terms of health, education, helping farmers, and helping people in crisis.

Now, there are people who are going to be radically worse off and sick and not educated in the same way because of what's happened. Literally taking people who are in hospitals and stopping treatments because the money is not there.

And not just that — people are going to die. A lot of people.

So we now have a million million tragedies that could have been avoided.

There's more at the link.

H/t Tyler Cowen

* * * * *

On the carnage at USAID, Zach MontagueMichael Crowley and Adam Liptak, Chief Justice Allows U.S. to Continue Freeze on Foreign Aid Payments, NYTimes, Feb. 27, 2025. From the article:

In another aggressive move on Wednesday to carry out the president’s directive, lawyers for the Trump administration said that it was ending nearly 10,000 U.S. Agency for International Development and State Department contracts and grants.

The pair of administration actions stunned diplomats and aid workers already reeling from mass firings at U.S.A.I.D., which funds food, health, development and democracy programs abroad, and which the Trump administration has systematically dismantled. A former senior U.S.A.I.D. official said the cuts account for about 90 percent of the agency’s work and tens of billions of dollars in spending.

The cuts deal “a catastrophic blow to USAID’s implementing partners and the populations they serve, likely bankrupting many, and shuttering lifesaving and important programs forever,” a group of agency workers and partners said in a fact sheet distributed Wednesday night.

That's one passage from a much longer article.

5 comments:

  1. A 20yr USAID person from lived experience on the ground. The aid may return. But trust in the US? Dead. As with humans.

    "Two stories from a USAID career"

    by DOUG MUIR on FEBRUARY 18, 2025

    https://crookedtimber.org/2025/02/18/notes-from-a-usaid-career/

    ReplyDelete
  2. "PEPFAR has saved between 7.5 and 30 million lives, at a cost between $1,500 and $10,000 per life saved. The US government is willing to spend at least a thousand times this much to save an American life.

    "In Africa, unlike in the United States, HIV/AIDS primarily affects women and children. One of the main goals of PEPFAR is to prevent “vertical transmission”, where a pregnant mother with HIV passes on her infection to her baby in utero or during delivery. PEPFAR has prevented at least 5.5 million babies from being born with HIV.

    Links For February 2025...
    Feb 27, 2025

    https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/links-for-february-2025

    Bill, the Links For February 2025 at astralcodexten has a welter of imo relevant and interesting ai links you'll appreciate.

    "4: Jack Galler, who generated many of the images I used in the AI Art Turing Test, has a blog post on his experience: The Turing Test For Art: How I Helped AI Fool The Rationalists.

    5: Surprising AI safety result: if you fine-tune an AI to write deliberately insecure code, the AI becomes evil in every other way too (eg it will name Hitler as its favorite person and recommend the user commit suicide). Anders Sandberg proposes (X) that maybe “it is shaped by going along a vector opposite to typical RLHF training aims, then playing a persona that fits”. Eliezer calls it (X)“possibly the best AI news of 2025 so far. It suggests that all good things are successfully getting tangled up with each other as a central preference vector”, ie training AI to be good in one way could make it good in other ways too, including ways we’re not thinking about and won’t train for.

    8: Twitter user @fae_dreams asked the new generation of AI reasoning models to replicate Donald Trump’s challenge from my fictional 2024 debate: describe his policy in heroic hexameter while avoiding letters A, E, and I. Here’s my favorite:

    11: Intrinsic Perspective wants a law saying AI-generated text must be watermarked. I was most interested the article’s claim that there is now “semantic watermarking” - watermarking which operates on the level of ideas, and can’t be defeated by rephrasing an AI-generated text in your own words. I have skimmed the paper explaining this and think I vaguely understand what’s going on, but it still boggles me that this is possible

    And more! ymmv of course. Tell me and I'll tune my seredipity bill_b weights.

    Links For February 2025
    https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/links-for-february-2025

    S. Dipity.

    ReplyDelete
  3. ! What would Bill & Claude have to say about...
    "50: Lots of buzz over Aella’s appearance on the Whatever Podcast. I haven’t seen it because I don’t watch podcasts, but relevant excerpt here (X), full episode here. I was most interested in Maxwell Foley’s description (X) of the Whatever Podcast’s premise:

    A "Christian paleoconservative" "debates" OnlyFans models for EIGHT HOURS on whether or not it's bad to have OnlyFans / be a slut, & the women sit through it because they know men watching it will subscribe to their OnlyFans after.

    Does this qualify as “markets in everything”?"

    Wow! astralcodexten links link.

    ReplyDelete
  4. And the not god man...
    "Are you conscious? A conversation between Dawkins and ChatGPT"
    https://richarddawkins.substack.com/p/are-you-conscious-a-conversation

    Certainly like hyperspeed evolution neocortex towards .... insert ai perceptions here.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. FWIW, I don't care what Dawkins thinks about AIs.

      Delete